


Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates in September for the first time in four years, but now investors are beginning to ask the natural next question: How much will they lower them in the months and years to come?
Deciding the answer could be complicated, and Friday’s job market data did little to clear things up.
Hiring stalled out in October, but that happened as two hurricanes hit the country, most likely substantially affecting job gains in some industries, and as strikes lowered employment numbers in manufacturing. The jobless rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent.
The muddled report leaves officials with little up-to-date idea of how strong hiring conditions are, even as the unemployment figure hinted that the economy is holding steady. Given that, the figures are likely to do little to change the Fed’s immediate policy path. Officials are widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point next week. But the latest data also shed little light on the path ahead for the economy.
“They are going to need more data after this,” said Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives. She added that the Fed was unlikely to make big shifts at its meeting next week in any case, given how much could change in the economy depending on who wins the White House.
“The Fed is going to be heads down here. We’re at a moment of intense uncertainty because of the U.S. election,” she said.