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NYTimes
New York Times
10 Oct 2024
Judson Jones


NextImg:Milton Was an Impressive Storm. Here Are 5 Things Our Meteorologist Noticed.

After the tree limbs are chopped up, the debris is swept away and the water subsides, Milton, like Helene, will be a hurricane that people, especially meteorologists, will remember and refer to for years to come.

The storm, which formed only four days before landfall, became one of the most intense hurricanes on record in the Gulf of Mexico, rivaling hurricanes like Wilma and Rita, both from 2005. Milton’s raw power is just one of the things that made it memorable.

Here’s a look at five things that stood out this week.

One key part of the very first forecast was incredibly accurate.

ImageAn illustration of the Gulf of Mexico with a hurricane path shown hitting Florida.
The National Hurricane Center’s first forecast late Saturday.Credit...National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center had one key piece of Milton’s puzzle correct at the start. When they issued their first forecast last Saturday, the anticipated path aligned almost precisely with where Milton ended up making landfall in Siesta Key, Fla. Historically, four days before landfall, the average error for a storm’s path is about 150 miles.

Over the next few days, the forecast path would nudge north and south, leaving residents fearful of vastly different potential impacts as the storm wobbled. People in Tampa, especially, grew increasingly worried about a worst-case scenario landfall north of Tampa Bay at high tide, which would have delivered a historically destructive storm surge.

Milton quickly became one of the strongest storms ever.

Forecasters did not have Milton’s intensity right on that first go, and they assumed the storm would be a strong Category 2 at landfall. But they started dialing in on the possibility of a major hurricane, a 3 or higher, a few hours later. And that is exactly what happened: From Sunday to Monday, Milton grew from a tropical storm to one of the strongest storms ever in the Gulf of Mexico.


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