In the 2018 elections — the midterms of Donald Trump’s presidency — turnout among younger voters surged. Almost twice as many people in their late 20s and early 30s voted that year as had done so in the midterms four years earlier. And they strongly backed Democratic candidates, helping the party retake control of Congress.
At the time, it was not clear whether the newfound political engagement of younger adults would last beyond Trump’s presidency. So far, though, it has — and it’s emerging as one of the biggest stories in American politics and a major advantage for the Democratic Party.
After each election, the data analysts at Catalist, a progressive research company, publish a post-mortem report based on months of analysis of election returns, voter files and other sources. A central theme of the latest report, covering the 2022 midterms, was that “Gen Z and millennial voters had exceptional levels of turnout,” as Catalist’s experts wrote. In the 14 states with heavily contested elections last year, turnout among younger voters rose even higher than it was in 2018.
This chart, by my colleague Ashley Wu, offers a nice way to see the trends:
Since 2014, turnout among people born before 1950 has declined, mostly because more have died or been unable to get to the polls. (Experts refer to this dynamic euphemistically as “exiting the electorate.”) Turnout among middle-aged people rose, and turnout among young voters rose even more sharply.
Older Americans still vote at higher rates than younger Americans, but the gap has narrowed substantially over the past two decades.
Fear, not love
Why? Many younger voters have become more politically active because they fear for the country’s future. Those on the left — who are a majority of younger voters — worry about climate change, abortion access, the extremism of the Republican Party and more. Those on the right worry about secularization, political correctness, illegal immigration and more.
“What seems to be driving younger voters to the polls isn’t love, but anger,” Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report has written.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, younger voters throughout U.S. history have not automatically been liberal. In 1984, Americans under 30 strongly backed Ronald Reagan’s re-election. In 2000, they split almost evenly between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
It’s true that people often become somewhat more conservative as they age (and millennials are following this pattern, as my colleague Nate Cohn explained). But the more significant factor is that generations tend to have distinct ideologies. People are shaped by the political zeitgeist during their adolescence, as research by Yair Ghitza, Andrew Gelman and Jonathan Auerbach has shown.
Americans who came of age during the Depression and New Deal, for example, leaned Democratic for their entire lives. Those who grew up during the Reagan era (many of whom are part of Generation X) lean to the right. In recent decades, major news events, including the Iraq war, the financial crisis, Barack Obama’s presidency and the chaos of Trump’s presidency, appear to have created a progressive generation.
For four straight national elections dating back to 2014, Democrats have won at least 60 percent of the vote among 18- to 29-year-olds. It’s longest such run of success since at least the 1970s, when Catalist’s data begins.
The pattern offers reason for Democratic optimism. Millennials and Generation Z are growing parts of the electorate, while older, more conservative generations are gradually exiting the electorate. Even in the short term, the age dynamics matter: A Republican will have a slightly harder time winning the presidency in 2024 than in 2020. In the long term, Republicans will struggle to win national elections unless they can appeal to more Americans born since 1980.
Still a contest
With all this said, a coming period of Democratic dominance is not guaranteed. The party has other weaknesses that could eventually alienate more millennial and Gen Z voters.
Another theme of the Catalist report is that working-class voters across races have recently drifted toward the Republican Party. Many of these less affluent voters seem bothered by the increasing social liberalism of the Democratic Party. Many younger voters are also not sure which party offers more promising economic policies.
These concerns help explain why Florida and Texas have remained solidly Republican, to the disappointment of Democrats. The chart below compares the Democratic Party’s performance by class and race in the past two midterm elections when a Democrat was in the White House.
I realize that the combination of trends is complex. The Democratic lean of Americans under 40, combined with their recent increase in voter turnout, has become a huge advantage for the party. Yet not all these voters are committed Democrats. Many identify as independents and are more conservative than the highly educated, affluent officials who dominate the Democratic Party and progressive groups.
In the competitive world of American politics, Democrats are in a stronger position than Republicans among younger voters, but the contest is not over.
More on 2024
Mike Pence, Chris Christie and Doug Burgum, North Dakota’s governor, are expected to announce presidential campaigns this week.
Nikki Haley dodged opportunities to take on Trump in a CNN town hall.
THE LATEST NEWS
India Train Crash
Indian officials are investigating signaling failure, but also suggested human error or sabotage could have led to a train crash that killed 275.
These graphics show how the disaster unfolded.
The Indian government has prioritized high-profile rail projects over basic safety improvements.
International
Russia said a major Ukrainian operation had begun in the Donetsk region. Follow our updates.
Cross-border shelling is bringing the war to Russians who live close to Ukraine.
Vigilante justice is surging in Haiti. Civilians have killed at least 160 gang members.
Hundreds of thousands of people marched through Warsaw in opposition to the deeply conservative governing party in Poland.
The Chinese authorities punished two students who gave out rainbow flags. The students say Xi Jinping is cracking down on gay and transgender activism.
Media
A Hollywood directors’ union reached a tentative deal with the studios on a three-year contract. The writers’ strike continues.
Chuck Todd is stepping down from NBC’s “Meet the Press.” Kristen Welker will succeed him.
A damning profile of Chris Licht, CNN’s chief executive, shook employees’ confidence in him. “He’s done,” a staffer told New York Magazine.
Twitter’s U.S. ad sales have plunged 59 percent, a problem for the company’s new C.E.O.
Other Big Stories
Billions in pandemic relief given to U.S. school districts to fight learning loss may not have helped much.
Sixteen migrants from Venezuela and Colombia were flown on a private jet to California and dropped off outside a Sacramento church building.
Allstate has stopped selling new home or commercial insurance policies in California, citing climate risks.
A Brooklyn neighborhood policed itself for five days. The experiment could redefine law enforcement in New York City.
The M.T.A. lost $690 million to fare evasion last year. Can technology make the turnstiles harder to jump?
A company that makes a blood test for cancer said that about 400 customers were mistakenly told last month that they might have the disease.
Opinions
Ozempic can offer new insight into the nature of pleasure and addictions, Maia Szalavitz explains.
Here are columns by Nick Kristof on children living longer in Africa and Farhad Manjoo on artificial intelligence.
MORNING READS
Slow and loving it: This back-of-the-packer wants to make running everyone’s sport.
Sonic boom: The loud noise heard across Washington, D.C., yesterday was caused by a military flight.
Metropolitan Diary: A thrift shop find she couldn’t afford.
News quiz: How well did you follow the news last week? Take our quiz. The average score was 8.5.
Grill tools: Pick the right spatula and tongs.
Advice from Wirecutter: Find the best patio furniture.
Lives Lived: Kaija Saariaho was a Finnish composer who rose to the top of contemporary classical music. She died at 70.
SPORTS NEWS
Miami evens series: The Miami Heat won Game 2 of the N.B.A. Finals 111-108 last night. The Athletic explains what worked for the Heat.
Nikola Jokic: The Nuggets center may be the best player in the N.B.A., The Times’s Sopan Deb writes. He avoids the spotlight, but Denver still loves him.
Faithful crowd: French fans are uniting behind French players at, naturally, the French Open, The Times’s Matthew Futterman reports.
She’s here: Rose Zhang, 20, turned pro last Thursday. By Sunday, she had her first L.P.G.A. Tour win, The Athletic reports.
ARTS AND IDEAS
Back to the cinema
Movie theaters are trying to lure back customers with perks like heated lounge chairs, buttons to summon waiters and seats that move with the movie’s action, Jane Margolies writes. But these changes can cost you: Movies on extra-large screens or in 3-D cost as much as $20.
PLAY, WATCH, EAT
What to Cook
Cauliflower pasta layers flavor upon flavor.
Where to Go
Take in the spectacular shows of Iceberg Alley off the eastern coast of Canada.
Now Time to Play
Here are today’s Spelling Bee and the Bee Buddy, which helps you find remaining words.
And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku.
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David
P.S. The Times’s Juliet Macur won a Deadline Club award for reporting on an Afghan goalkeeper forced to flee her country.
Here’s today’s front page.
Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.