A young opposition activist planning to trek through seven countries and a perilous jungle to reach the United States. A journalist ready to abandon everything to build a new life abroad. A lawyer in her 60s, fearful that her last daughter is about to leave.

For thousands of Venezuelans, the decision to remain or flee their homeland depends on a single date: July 28. On that day, the country will vote in a high-stakes presidential election.

If the country’s authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, declares victory, they say they will go. If the opposition candidate wins, they will stay.

“Everyone says the same thing,” said Leonela Colmenares, 28, the opposition activist. “If Maduro wins, they are leaving.”

Roughly a quarter of Venezuela’s population has already left, with almost eight million people living in other countries, according to the United Nations, forming one of the largest migration crises in the world.