Donald Trump is often described as an isolationist, and there is a lot of truth in that label. Trump embraces the slogan “America First.” He criticizes military aid for Ukraine. He can be withering about America’s closest allies.
But Trump is not an across-the-board isolationist. When he was president, he engaged with the world in ways that still shape U.S. policy. Rather than ignoring China, he adopted a more confrontational approach than any president in 50 years. In the Middle East, he imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran and ordered the assassination of a top general. He also fired missiles at Syria after it used chemical weapons against its own people. A pure isolationist wouldn’t have taken those steps.
The Morning has been publishing a series called The Stakes, focused on the policy positions of the presidential candidates. Today, I’ll look at Trump’s foreign policy by asking two questions: How much of an isolationist is he? And does he deserve credit — as he often argues — for the lack of major wars when he was president?
1. An isolationist?
I find it helpful to think about Trump’s foreign policy views on a spectrum from most isolationist to most interventionist:
Ukraine is on the isolationist end. Trump has called for cutting U.S. military aid, which could force Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal. To many other politicians from both parties, this possibility is deeply alarming: It could reward Vladimir Putin’s invasion, by enabling Russia to annex Ukrainian territory, and encourage future wars. Trump, however, believes that Americans shouldn’t care much about what happens in many faraway places.
His approach to U.S. allies like Japan and Western European countries also leans isolationist — but with nuance. While president, he pressured these allies to increase military spending, and some did so. You can consider that approach isolationist because it allows the U.S. to be less engaged. But it also strengthens the international alliance that the U.S. leads. Interventionists also want those countries to spend more.
China may be the most confusing part of Trump’s worldview. On economic policy, he made the U.S. approach more aggressive, and President Biden has maintained that stance. But on national security and human rights, Trump leans isolationist. He has suggested that China can do what it wants about Hong Kong, and he has criticized Taiwan for not paying more to the U.S. Since leaving office, he has reversed his position on TikTok and now seems fine with Chinese ownership of one of the biggest social media platforms in the U.S. This pattern may explain why Chinese officials seem to be rooting for a Trump victory.
The Middle East, especially Iran, is the area where Trump is least isolationist — and Iran’s leaders are clearly rooting against Trump. “Iran is the big exception in his largely anti-interventionist foreign policy,” Jonathan Swan, a Times reporter who covers Trump’s campaign, told me, “and he feels even more strongly about Iran now than he did while in office.” If Trump wins, he may impose new sanctions or even attack Iran’s nuclear program, Jonathan said. Trump has also shown little concern about Gaza or the Palestinians suffering there, my colleague Maggie Haberman notes.
One theme that unites all of this is that Trump prefers dealing with other countries one on one rather than through multilateral trade deals or international groups like NATO. “He thinks it dilutes American leverage to be negotiating within such a large group,” Jonathan said. “He views all international institutions as scams designed to siphon from the American Treasury.”
2. The ‘no wars’ president?
And how should you think about Trump’s claim that he avoids war? “I don’t have wars,” he has said.
Unlike many of his statements, this one has a basis in reality. During his presidency, Trump didn’t involve the U.S. in new conflicts, and no other country started a major war. During Biden’s presidency, by contrast, Russia invaded Ukraine, and Hamas attacked Israel.
Many Democrats argue that this pattern is a coincidence. Trump’s supporters argue that it stems from his combination of strength and unpredictability. “Trump makes our enemies fear escalation, which causes them to back down,” Marc Thiessen, a conservative Washington Post columnist, wrote. Trump himself told The Wall Street Journal that other countries fear him as “crazy” (preceding that word with an adjective that family newspapers try to avoid).