It has become a mystery in the current Middle East conflict: Why has Iran responded so meekly to recent attacks on its top officials and close allies?

The pattern began in 2020, when the U.S. killed a top Iranian military official in a drone strike. This year, Israel killed several other military officials by bombing Iran’s consulate in Syria. Then Israel assassinated a leader of Hamas — a group that Iran supports — while he was staying in a government guesthouse in Tehran. Over the past two weeks, Israel has decimated the leadership of Hezbollah, a militant group in Lebanon that’s even closer to Iran than Hamas is.

In response, Iran has done little. It fired some missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq in 2020 and shot hundreds of missiles into Israel this past April. But neither attack did major damage, and Iran didn’t follow up. So far, it has not responded to Israel’s stunning recent attacks on Hezbollah, either.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain why Iran has been so quiet, with help from my colleagues who are covering the conflict.

Iran’s ambitions

The lack of response has been notable partly because of Iran’s history as an ambitious Middle Eastern power.

Its government celebrates its hostility to the United States — with cries of “death to America” — and repeatedly calls for the destruction of Israel. Iran has fostered a network of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, known as the “axis of resistance,” that attack Israel. (These maps help explain the axis.) Iran has also antagonized Saudi Arabia, the most important Arab ally of the United States and a country run by a Sunni Muslim monarchy, in contrast to Iran’s Shiite clerical government.