Federal Reserve officials held off on cutting interest rates at their July meeting because they wanted to see more evidence that inflation was cooling, which they are expected to get on Wednesday. But the stakes surrounding their next steps have suddenly become much higher.

The Consumer Price Index inflation measure probably remained relatively cool on an annual basis in July. Economists in a Bloomberg survey think that the index probably climbed 3 percent from a year earlier, in line with a 3 percent rise in June.

While that is faster than the 2 percent that was normal before the coronavirus pandemic, it is much slower than the 9.1 percent peak in 2022.

And after stripping out food and fuel prices, both of which can be volatile, the “core” index probably climbed 3.2 percent from a year earlier. That would be down from 3.3 percent the month before.

Signs that inflation is staying relatively low — or continuing to moderate — would likely keep officials at the Fed on track to cut interest rates at their Sept. 17-18 meeting. Investors think the big question is whether policymakers will lower borrowing costs by a quarter-point, a typical move, or a half-point, which would be an unusually large cut. Market pricing suggests that traders think it could go either way at this point.

Just how much the Fed cuts rates next month could hinge partly on whether inflation continues to slow, but it is expected to depend heavily on what happens in the labor market. The unemployment rate ticked up and hiring slowed in the latest jobs report, which was concerning because weakness in the labor market can quickly bleed into the rest of the economy.