It feels as if the holiday season has come early in Moscow. The pedestrian streets are festooned with twinkling lights, Mariah Carey’s “All I Want For Christmas” is playing in cafes across the city, and the elite TSUM department store is already wrapped in red bunting.

In this atmosphere, Donald J. Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections might seem like an early holiday gift, too, given his record of praise for President Vladimir V. Putin.

Reports about Mr. Trump’s victory have been playing repeatedly on state television, with some broadcasts showing photos of Mr. Trump’s face under the inscription “Kamala, You’re Fired!”

Indeed there is a restrained sense of optimism that Mr. Trump’s triumph could lead to a breakthrough in U.S.-Russian relations, and possibly an end to the war in Ukraine, which is almost through its third year.

Still, the sliver of hope is tempered with wariness, fueled by the robust U.S. support for Ukraine. Russians are hardly celebrating the way they did for Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016, when members of Parliament popped open champagne bottles.

Even as it has congratulated Mr. Trump on his victory, the Kremlin has portrayed the United States as an adversary essentially waging a proxy war against Russia.