Hurricane John grew from a tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane on Monday as it churned off the southwestern coast of Mexico, threatening the small tourist town of Puerto Escondido, known for its laid-back, surfing vibe.
Pacific disturbances like this one typically form between July and September, according to Matthew Rosencrans, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s lead meteorologist for the seasonal hurricane outlook. Such storms can cause catastrophic damage in the region.
Key things to know about the storm.
The storm could still intensify. Hurricane John is forecast to continue its rapid intensification into a major hurricane, meaning at least a Category 3, as it makes landfall early Tuesday morning in the Mexican State of Oaxaca. A portion of the coastline is currently under a hurricane warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected within 12-24 hours NOAA said.
Residents should get ready for heavy rains. Forecasters are also predicting 6 to 12 inches of rain through Thursday, and up to 30 inches in isolated areas along the coastline. Heavy rains could cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides in Oaxaca, along with the Mexican states of Chiapas and Guerrero. Other regions could see 6 to 12 inches of rain through Thursday that could cause life-threatening flood risks, especially near the coast.
A recent study showed that rapid intensification like what John is expected to undergo is now twice as likely, at least for Atlantic hurricanes, partially because of human-caused climate change driven by the burning of fossil fuels. Earlier this year, Hurricane Beryl broke records when it became the earliest hurricane ever to reach Category 4 and then Category 5 intensity in the Atlantic Basin, with wind speeds increasing by 35 miles per hour or more within a 24-hour period.
Even if Hurricane John doesn’t continue to grow in strength, it is still likely to bring damaging hurricane-force winds above 74 miles per hour and dangerous storm surge, or an unusually high rise in sea level and wave height that could cause flooding.
Hurricanes are also unleashing higher levels of rainfall as global temperatures increase.
Carrie Stevenson, a faculty member at the University of Florida who works with local communities on hurricane preparedness, said the rainfall forecast could be devastating.