President Trump may have won the presidency twice, but he still thinks the electoral system is rigged. In his view, the safest way to run a democracy is to vote at your local precinct, and only on Election Day. He believes without evidence that two popular methods are rife with fraud: mailed ballots and voting machines. This week, he said he would aim to eliminate them. He’s planning an executive order.
This effort is years old — and based largely on conspiracy theories that emerged during the pandemic. (I covered them, alongside voting tech, extensively at the time.) But a change to how we vote could have a huge impact on elections, discarding decades of settled election law. Today’s newsletter gives you the basics.
Can he do this?
Probably not. The Constitution gives authority over elections to the states. They set the “times, places and manner” of elections; they decide the rules; they oversee voting and try to prevent fraud. Congress can also pass election laws or override state legislation, as it did with the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which helped enfranchise minority groups.
But the president’s authority is limited. Last month, a federal judge blocked his executive order requiring documentary proof of citizenship to vote. “The Constitution does not grant the president any specific powers over elections,” the judge wrote.
How many people vote by mail?
You could vote absentee for decades, but many more people began casting their ballots this way during the 2020 election. It was a way to pick your leaders while avoiding Covid. It remains popular, presumably for convenience: You don’t have to call out of work or brave bad weather to exercise your civic right. In the 2024 election, nearly 40 million people voted by mail, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida.
How many use voting machines?
Nearly every voter in the country. Some states use a wholly digital interface, like a large iPad. These tabulate the results and create a paper receipt for backup. Other states use machines to scan paper ballots, including those sent by mail. Some states use machines to sort incoming mail ballots.
Are they safe? Or prone to fraud?
Voter fraud in the United States is extremely rare across all forms of voting. Countless studies on the topic have found cases of voter fraud to be well below a fraction of a percent. Across six swing states in 2020, there were about 475 potential cases of fraud out of 25.5 million votes cast, according to a study by The Associated Press.
Mail: There have been isolated instances of fraud in mail voting, including recently in a mayoral election in Connecticut and two elections in New Jersey. But neither instance involved large numbers of ballots. They were contained to small geographic areas. Trump says bogus mail ballots flood elections. There is no evidence for this.
Machines: Despite claims by Trump and his allies that machines have been hacked, or results altered, there has never been any evidence.
Does mail-in voting give either party an advantage?
It used to be dominated by Republicans, who saw it as an efficient way to turn out rural voters. But since the pandemic, Democrats have embraced the method more widely. In part that’s because Trump disparaged voting by mail ahead of the 2020 election. In that race, 58 percent of Democrats voted by mail, compared with 29 percent of Republicans, according to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
In the 2024 race, Trump changed his tune. He encouraged his supporters to vote by mail, and they listened: Republicans made large gains, though they still trailed Democrats in many states.
If Trump can’t mandate a change, will Republican-led states do it themselves?
Mail: They’ve been adding new restrictions to voting by mail ever since the 2020 election. Several eliminated the ability to submit mail ballots in drop boxes, while others have added identification requirements and shortened the window when you can send ballots in. Still, plenty of Republican-led states (Florida, Ohio, Utah and others) use mail voting, and it remains popular with older and rural voters.
Machines: No state has looked to outlaw voting machines, but some Republican-led counties attempted hand counts of paper ballots in recent elections. It didn’t go well. Some efforts were abandoned when they took too long — or officials used machines to double-check their work.
More on elections
The Democrats are hemorrhaging voter registrations. In all 30 states that track registration by party, they lost ground to Republicans between 2020 and 2024 — often by a lot.
A Texas lawmaker slept in the State Capitol to avoid the police surveillance that Republicans imposed after the Democratic walkout over redistricting.
California Republicans filed a lawsuit to block Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting plan.
THE LATEST NEWS
War in Ukraine
Trump suggested that Vladimir Putin would be fine with European troops in Ukraine as part of a security guarantee. Russian officials have repeatedly rejected that idea.
Trump also said that Putin had agreed to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky. Russia’s foreign minister downplayed the prospect. (Analysts say Putin would probably only meet to accept a capitulation.)
After the recent meetings, diplomats are scrambling to prepare detailed proposals. Work like that usually happens before a summit, Zolan Kanno-Youngs writes.
Where the border goes is central to a peace deal. Here’s a look at Russia’s advances into Ukrainian territory since it invaded Crimea in 2014.
Maggie Haberman, who has covered Trump for years, explains how the president has struggled to convince Putin to go along with his plans. Click the video below to watch.
D.C. Takeover
The U.S. attorney’s office in Washington is investigating whether city police officials falsified crime data, widening the feud between federal and local authorities.
More National Guard troops are in the city — mostly in tourist areas.
The U.S. attorney there, Jeanine Pirro, has instructed prosecutors to maximize charges against anyone arrested in the administration’s crackdown.
Education
Trump has used negotiations with elite universities to extract money and power for his administration. Critics call it extortion.
The administration’s policies mean many international students won’t make it to campus this fall: Some can’t get visa appointments; others are simply scared.
Ask The Morning: Do you have questions about the start of the new school year? Send them here. We’ll answer some in a future newsletter.
International
It’s hard to know how much damage U.S. bombs inflicted at Fordo, the Iranian nuclear facility buried in a mountain. The Times examined some clues.
People in Pakistan used to look forward to monsoon rains as a source of renewal. This year, floods devastated large parts of the country, killing more than 700 people.
Other Big Stories
Eric Adams, New York’s mayor, demanded that the federal government stop arresting people at the city’s immigration courts, a rare break with Trump on immigration.
Inflation is up and job creation is down, but the U.S. economy could still pull through without too much pain.
New York City beaches will close to swimmers today and tomorrow as Hurricane Erin brings deadly currents.
REORIENTATION
The Mercator map of the globe is what many of us were taught in school. It was created by a 16th-century German cartographer to help European explorers to navigate the seas. But the map distorts reality. It makes Europe and Africa appear to be roughly the same size; in fact, Africa is three times as big.
Now African leaders are pushing to replace the Mercator map with a more accurately proportioned alternative, called Equal Earth:
“It is more than geography, it’s really about dignity and pride,” an African civic society leader told The Times. “Maps shape how we see the world, and also how power is perceived. So by correcting the map, we also correct the global narrative about Africa.”
THE MORNING QUIZ
This question comes from a recent edition of the newsletter. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free.)
Ronnie Rondell, a stuntman, died last week at 88. He appeared in a burning suit on an album cover for which band?
OPINIONS
The warming planet is dividing American workers into two classes: the cooled who work inside and the cooked who work outside, Jeff Goodell writes.
Here are columns by Thomas Friedman on Trump’s diplomatic style and M. Gessen on the real meaning of the Ukraine talks.
MORNING READS
Leprechaun whisperer: Kevin Woods, who lives in rural Ireland, says he talks to magical creatures.
Your pick: The most clicked article in The Morning yesterday was about the end of the Air Canada strike. Here’s what travelers need to know.
Trending: The actress Aubrey Plaza spoke about her husband’s suicide for the first time publicly on Amy Poehler’s podcast, Variety reports.
Pot proselytizer: Richard Lee, who has died at 62, turned to marijuana to control his pain after a paralyzing accident — and found his life’s mission in promoting its medical use and legalization. He helped kick-start the movement that has changed cannabis laws in 40 states.
SPORTS
Boxing: The boxer Julio César Chávez Jr., whose father was a world champion in multiple weight divisions, is being held in Mexico after the Department of Homeland Security deported him from the U.S. Chávez Jr. was wanted in Mexico on a variety of charges, the department said.
M.L.B.: Aaron Judge is unlikely to throw normally again in 2025, the Yankees’ manager said. Judge is recovering from a flexor strain in his right arm.
INTERNET SPEAK
Advertisers are increasingly turning to generative A.I., creating visuals and voice-overs for commercials for a fraction of what they once cost. Some companies are embracing the change: In Britain, a TV network has helped create A.I.-generated spots for small businesses that had never made commercials before. But there are risks: Marketers warn that some customers bristle at the sight of A.I. imagery and question the ethics of replacing human writers and artists with machines.
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …
Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangrams were mezzotint, monetize and timezone.
And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Connections, Sports Connections and Strands.
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