Could same-sex marriage be next?

Gay Americans and their allies have much to celebrate on Thursday, the 10th anniversary of Obergefell v. Hodges, the Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide.

Same-sex marriage has, by almost every indication, become ingrained in everyday American life. Since the decision, there have been 591,000 same-sex marriages, and today, nearly two-thirds of Americans approve of the policy. Same-sex couples are staples in contemporary movies and television shows, and reside, often with their children, in small towns, cities and suburbs all across America.

But advocates of gay rights are approaching this anniversary with trepidation as much as celebration.

Led by the Trump administration, conservatives are pushing to eliminate protections and programs for L.G.B.T.Q. people. And three years ago this month, the justices overturned Roe v. Wade and eliminated the constitutional right to abortion, demonstrating that this Supreme Court is willing to jettison five decades of precedent.

Among Republicans, support for same-sex marriage has dropped significantly — to 41 percent last month, from 55 percent in 2021, according to a Gallup poll. The finding reflects the Republican move to the right, as well as what analysts said is a spillover from rising backlash to other L.G.B.T. Q. issues — in particular, the push for transgender rights.