Just before a gunman fired at Donald J. Trump at a Pennsylvania rally Saturday, we concluded a new set of New York Times/Siena College polls of Pennsylvania and Virginia. While the polls were completed before the shooting, they still offer context about the state of the race.

Five years ago, Joe Biden was the “electability” candidate — the well-liked, moderate Democrat who promised to beat Donald J. Trump and had the poll numbers to back it up.

The polls don’t back up President Biden’s electability case anymore. In this morning’s latest New York Times/Siena College polls, he trails by three percentage points among likely voters in must-win Pennsylvania, while he leads by a mere three points in Virginia — a state he carried by 10 points four years ago.

Not only does Mr. Biden trail Mr. Trump, but he also fares worse than Vice President Kamala Harris, the only other Democrat tested in the poll. She ran about two points ahead of Mr. Biden, trailing by one point in Pennsylvania while leading by five points in Virginia.

(A gunman fired at Mr. Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on Saturday after the polls were completed, adding uncertainty to the race.)