Earlier this week, Gov. Kathy Hochul recalled experiencing a mix of confusion and dread after seeing President Trump discuss his plans to close the Department of Education.

She wondered: Would that endanger her expansion of free school lunches in New York? What would it mean for the state’s Pell Grant allocations?

“We don’t have a crystal ball that tells us the scale of the cuts,” Ms. Hochul said.

As Congress works out the particulars of how it might roll back trillions of dollars in federal spending, New York and other states have been left to play a guessing game about how they might be affected.

New York’s budget, which is due April 1 but is likely to be passed late, anticipates tens of billions of dollars in federal aid. It also includes tax revenue forecasts that predate much of the turbulence in the stock market that followed Mr. Trump’s tariff proposals.

The uncertainty over the looming federal cuts means that whatever budget deal is approved by the governor and legislative leaders may need to be altered substantially, and quickly.

It’s just hard to know where the cuts might come and how they could affect the state’s finances.

“If and when we lose federal dollars in various categories, we are going to have to completely re-evaluate sections of the budget or perhaps the whole budget,” said State Senator Liz Krueger, a Democrat who leads the Finance Committee.