The global economy is projected to slow this year and next as persistent uncertainty over trade policy and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on world output, according to new forecasts published on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund.

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the I.M.F. said global economic growth would slow to 3.2 percent in 2025 from 3.3 percent last year. Growth is projected to fall to 3.1 percent in 2026, as the protectionist measures being adopted in the United States and around the world take hold.

The world economy is slightly stronger than economists at the I.M.F. expected it would be earlier this year. That is because the United States scaled back or delayed many of the tariffs President Trump threatened after taking office and because businesses raced to stock up on goods before tariffs took effect. Many firms have, for now, held off on passing additional costs to their customers.

But significant uncertainty remains. New tariffs on imported furniture, kitchen cabinets and lumber went into effect on Tuesday. Trade tensions between the United States and China flared again last week, after Mr. Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese imports by an additional 100 percent in response to new Chinese export controls. A protracted shutdown of the federal government in the United States could also weigh on the world’s largest economy this year.

“There are increasing signs that the adverse effects of protectionist measures are starting to show,” the I.M.F. report said. “As the global economy slides into a more fragmented landscape, risks to the outlook increase.”

The projections are similar to those released last week by the World Trade Organization, which forecast slower trade growth in 2026 but said the world economy had remained more resilient in 2025 than previously expected.