


Britain is bracing for the arrival of Hurricane Erin next week, though forecasters are still uncertain if the storm, or what remains of it by then, will strike directly. It is nonetheless expected to have a lasting effect on the nation’s weather for the remainder of the summer.
Erin erupted into a hurricane last weekend, intensifying rapidly from a tropical storm to a Category 5 storm in just 24 hours. It has since weakened but its size is generating life-threatening surf and rip currents along much of the East Coast of the United States and the Bahamas.
The National Hurricane Center predicts Erin will become post-tropical by late this week near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Erin’s path after that is uncertain. Forecasts suggest that the system will continue toward western Europe, but where exactly it will land is not fully known yet. However, forecasters say one thing is clear: Erin will not regain hurricane strength as it crosses the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.
“Technically no hurricane could hit the U.K.,” said Aidan McGivern, a meteorologist with the Met Office, Britain’s weather service. “The seas surrounding the U.K. are simply not warm enough.”
Tropical cyclones like Erin form over warm seas, with surface temperatures above 26 degrees Celsius (nearly 79 degrees Fahrenheit), where rising heat and moisture drive thunderstorms around a central eye. Low wind shear — winds that remain relatively consistent with height — helps those storms organize and intensify, but as conditions change, they weaken.
Even so, Britain can sometimes feel the impact of deep depressions that originated as hurricanes.
In October 2017, the ex-hurricane Ophelia struck the British Isles, bringing hurricane-strength gusts of up to 90 miles per hour, particularly along the Irish Sea coasts of west Wales, while the Republic of Ireland saw winds of up to 97 miles per hour.
The most severe effects were felt across the Republic of Ireland, where three people were killed by falling trees. Thousands of homes and businesses in Wales and Northern Ireland also lost power, while damage was reported to a stadium roof in Cumbria, northwest England. Travel was also affected, with flights from Manchester and Edinburgh to the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland canceled, and some roads and railway lines in Wales were closed. Ferry services across the Irish Sea were also disrupted.
But sometimes tropical depressions can affect Britain’s weather in a very different way. In August this year, the remnants of Dexter contributed to the country’s fourth heat wave of the season.
Although it was not a strong system as it neared Britain, its position southwest of the country meant its counterclockwise winds pulled hot air north from southern Europe, where an extreme heat wave was underway. This effect, combined with a high-pressure system that sat over Britain, allowed for prolonged sunshine, and temperatures rose well above average for several days, exceeding 30 degrees Celsius or 86 degrees Fahrenheit.
Computer models show two likely scenarios for Erin’s path next week.
One carries the storm to the west of Britain, initially pushing some rain from west to east over the United Kingdom on Tuesday.
The alternative track carries Erin farther south toward the Azores in the North Atlantic Ocean.
As of Thursday, the most likely scenario — according to most computer models — was for Erin to move toward western Britain next week, though the forecast remained uncertain.
Forecasters said there’s still a fair degree of uncertainty on the track of the system and firmer details would be worked out in the coming days. Just a day earlier, on Wednesday, forecasts indicated a greater likelihood of Erin tracking southward, closer to Portugal and Spain.
Regardless of its final path, Erin’s influence on Britain appears inevitable. The storm’s injection of warmer air into the atmosphere is expected to energize the North Atlantic jet stream — a high altitude ribbon of air flowing west to east. That current often steers storms toward Britain and can intensify them when they are caught in its flow. It also serves as a dividing line between cold polar air to the north and warm tropical air to the south.
“Hurricane Erin introduces much warmer air from the south,” said Mr. McGivern. That added heat sharpens the contrast between warm and cold air masses, he explained, forcing the jet stream to accelerate. The result is a jet streak — a zone of significantly stronger winds within the jet stream, that can intensify low-pressure systems and bring stormier weather for Britain.
And that streak could linger for the rest of summer.
“It does look a little bit more likely that Autumn will make an early appearance,” said Mr. McGivern. “And that’s the direct result of Erin.”