Four years ago, the Czech Republic voted out its populist, wealthy, scandal-singed prime minister known as the “Czech Trump.”

Now, echoing President Trump’s own comeback, Andrej Babis, prime minister from 2017 to 2021, is poised to return to that office, potentially reviving a Euroskeptic government that experts say could trim military aid to Ukraine. His party, Ano, is expected to prevail in two days of parliamentary elections that begin Friday.

Like Mr. Trump, the 71-year-old Mr. Babis is more interested in taking a transactional approach with the European Union than in forging sweeping foreign policies. And like Mr. Trump, he is expected to try to foist support for Ukraine onto European partners rather than share the load. Mr. Babis also is capitalizing on a wobbly economy to appeal to voters, much as Mr. Trump did.

No major Czech party is expected to win outright majorities in the 200-seat lower house of Parliament. Mr. Babis’s ability to form a government may hinge on his willingness to bring political extremes into his coalition.

At least two of the parties to which Mr. Babis would turn hold Euro- and NATO-skeptic or pro-Russian views, said Daniel Hegedüs, director for Central Europe at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. He said it would be “a nightmare scenario for international, European partners” should Mr. Babis invite those parties to join the government.

Their influence could turn the Czech Republic “into a sort of naysayer” on support for Ukraine and other issues facing the European Union, including issuing sanctions against Russia, Mr. Hegedüs said.

“There could be a huge reluctance to continue support to Ukraine, and to play the same constructive role in the European Union and NATO” as the Czech Republic has before, he said.

Alliances across the political map

Ano, which means “yes,” has pledged to cut taxes, increase pensions, cap energy prices and freeze politicians’ salaries. It has also said it would eliminate fees that finance public television and radio, which is likened to a tax cut but one that opponents have criticized as giving the government more control over broadcast media.

Mr. Hegedüs described the party as focused on economic and social issues without a strong ideology, although the government that Mr. Babis led when first elected prime minister was considered politically center-left.

Last year, Mr. Babis co-founded the Patriots for Europe, a right-wing main opposition party in the European Union, with Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary. Experts predict that, if elected, Mr. Babis would align the Czech Republic with the nationalist policies of Hungary and Slovakia, both of which maintain ties with Russia.

In a debate this week, Ano joined mainstream parties in calling Russia the greatest threat to the Czech Republic. But Mr. Babis and other Ano leaders have been more circumspect about continuing military aid to help Ukraine defend against Russia, and have played on voters’ weariness with the three-year-long war to insist that support be diverted back into the Czech economy.

Mr. Babis has also said he would scrap a multibillion-dollar program to supply Ukraine with desperately needed ammunition procured by Czech companies. Other Ano officials have since softened that stance, suggesting NATO manage it instead.

The right-wing Freedom and Direct Democracy party, or SPD, and the left-wing Stacilo party have vowed to end Czech assistance to Ukraine and favor diplomacy with all key global players, including Russia. Mr. Babis may look to at least one of those, if not both, to create a coalition government.

Vit Dostal, the executive director of the Prague-based research group Association for International Affairs, predicted that other European leaders would work to persuade Mr. Babis to continue the ammunition program under Czech auspices and keep Russia at bay.

“I do not think Merz wants another irritant in Europe,” Mr. Dostal said, referring to Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, one of Ukraine’s biggest backers.

Politics at play

Mr. Babis has said he would prefer to govern alone, in a minority government, instead of creating a coalition like the center-right alliance led by the current prime minister, Petr Fiala. In that scenario, Ano would run government ministries but partner with other parties on a case-by-case basis to push issues through Parliament.

It is also possible that Ano will coalesce with more mainstream political parties, including from Mr. Fiala’s government, although he and Mr. Babis have dismissed that idea.

“Such a step would be difficult for these parties to justify to their electorates, yet it could be presented as a means to prevent extremists from gaining a foothold in the government,” an analysis by Mr. Dostal’s organization concluded.

The Czech president, Petr Pavel, is expected to keep a steady hand on foreign policy. The presidency is a largely ceremonial role, but Mr. Pavel, a former NATO general, has had considerable influence on security issues.

It is unclear, however, how much sway he might maintain in a government led by Mr. Babis. The two men faced off in a 2023 presidential election, which Mr. Pavel won.

Initial election results could be announced as soon as Saturday evening, although it could take weeks to form a government.

Barbora Chaloupková contributed reporting.