I sometimes feel like I’m making Oscar predictions from a defensive crouch, already anticipating what the academy might get wrong. Still, hope springs eternal.
Over the last few years, the academy has diversified itself and added more young and international members, so the group’s sensibilities are bound to shift, too. When the nominations are announced on Jan. 23, is there a chance that everything could suddenly go right, and voters could shock us not with what gets snubbed but with what they were cool enough to make room for?
If so, maybe we’ll be fortunate enough to see some of the following names called on Thursday.
Coralie Fargeat, best director
Gory horror comedies don’t tend to sail through awards season, but “The Substance” has had a charmed run thus far, culminating in Demi Moore’s triumphant Golden Globe win. The 62-year-old actress now seems like a sure bet for an Oscar nomination, but can that good will extend to Fargeat, the film’s envelope-pushing French director? The academy’s directing branch tends to lean toward more highbrow picks, but there’s no disputing Fargeat’s vision and panache. In a year when Hollywood produced few female contenders for this category, seeing her included would be a welcome jolt.
‘Challengers,’ best original score
Could the most exciting film music of the year be dealt a savage snub? Though the propulsive techno score earned Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross a Golden Globe, I fear that the Oscars may overlook it: When members of the British film academy winnowed the BAFTA original-score contenders to 10, “Challengers” failed to make the lineup. Since that awards body has a significant member overlap with the American academy, this may be an early warning sign that the “Challengers” score is simply too cutting-edge for more traditionally minded voters. Let’s hope stateside Oscar voters prove more amenable than their British counterparts, since it’s impossible to imagine Luca Guadagnino’s tennis-themed love triangle (or any of my gym playlists) without those driving club synths.
‘Union,’ ‘No Other Land’ and ‘The Bibi Files,’ best documentary feature
Of the 15 films that made this year’s Oscar shortlist for best documentary feature, three have tackled such controversial topics that no U.S. distributor was willing to pick them up: “Union,” about the push to unionize an Amazon warehouse in Staten Island, “No Other Land,” which chronicles the razing of a West Bank village by the Israeli authorities, and “The Bibi Files,” about the corruption case against Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister. The corporations that own many studios have only grown more hesitant to pick up political hot potatoes, but Oscar attention for these worthy contenders would at least be a boon to their self-distribution plans, and a rebuke to the wealthy movers and shakers who are too afraid to back controversial art.