Nina Megayanti used to think she had it all.

For years, she had a comfortable life in Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, eating out with friends, taking weekend trips abroad and making house payments. But in 2023, she was laid off from her marketing job as the economy slowed. She was out of work for more than a year, lost her housing deposit and went through almost all of her savings.

Millions of other Indonesians are similarly desperate. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the country’s unemployment rate will rise this year to become the second-highest in Asia, exceeded only by China’s.

But the government says the economy is doing fine, pointing to its annual growth rate of about 5 percent. Since taking office in October, President Prabowo Subianto has been focused on fulfilling campaign pledges, including a nationwide free school lunch program and affordable housing. He has also set up a new sovereign wealth fund.

To bankroll these projects, he has redirected the equivalent of billions of dollars in government funds, slashed budgets and demanded austerity from the ministries of public works, health and education, among others. He has also fired thousands of government contractors. But Indonesia’s economy is heavily dependent on state spending, and critics say Mr. Prabowo’s priorities are misplaced.

“The government is in denial about the economy,” said Awalil Rizky, an economist at the Bright Institute, an independent think tank in Jakarta. “The employment figures are evidence that the conditions are indeed not good.”

The I.M.F. has projected that Indonesia’s unemployment rate will rise to 5 percent this year, from 4.9 percent in 2024. And on Tuesday, the government lowered its estimate for economic growth in 2025 to about 5 percent, from 5.2 percent.