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NYTimes
New York Times
16 Jan 2025
Jack Nicas


NextImg:As Trump Heads to White House, Bolsonaro May Be Headed to Jail. Why?

There is arguably no statesman who cuts such a striking political resemblance to Donald J. Trump than Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s former president.

The two men built their brash political brands on insulting rivals, attacking the press, doubting science and vowing to unroot political elites. When they were each running for re-election, they both warned that only fraud could cause them to lose. And when each lost, they both questioned the results and helped spark attempted insurrections in their respective capitols.

Since then, however, their political paths have dramatically diverged.

On Monday, Mr. Trump is set to return to the White House. Mr. Bolsonaro has been invited to attend the inauguration — but he will probably have to watch from home. That is because Brazil’s Supreme Court confiscated his passport as part of sprawling investigations into what it says were his efforts to subvert democracy — probes that could land him in prison this year.

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Protesters in São Paulo in December calling for Mr. Bolsonaro to be jailed.Credit...Andre Penner/Associated Press

So why have the two political matches faced such different fates for similar acts?

A key reason: Brazilian institutions have responded to Mr. Bolsonaro far differently than their U.S. counterparts responded to Mr. Trump.

Here are three differences that have made an impact.

1. Bolsonaro was ruled ineligible

Perhaps the clearest contrast: Mr. Trump was able to run for president while prosecutors pursued criminal charges against him, while Mr. Bolsonaro has been ruled ineligible for the next election.


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