Mexico has been one of America’s closest allies for years under both Democratic and Republican administrations, even Donald Trump’s.
That may be changing. Republican officials and voters have not only expressed criticisms of Mexico but also outright hostility against America’s southern neighbor.
The starkest example involves repeated calls by Republican presidential candidates to bomb Mexico or unilaterally send troops there to stop the illegal drug trade, which would be an act of war.
Trump led the way: He asked defense officials about striking Mexico with missiles while he was president, and during the 2024 presidential campaign he has supported military action. Ron DeSantis has called for using deadly force and a naval blockade of Mexican ports to stop drug traffickers. More moderate candidates, like Tim Scott and Nikki Haley, have also backed using the military against drug cartels in Mexico.
“You know what you tell the Mexican president? ‘Either you do it or we do it,’” Haley said in March. “But we are not going to let all of this lawlessness continue to happen.”
These calls haven’t become a major focus of national attention because the Republican campaign remains in its early stages. But as the campaign picks up — including at the first debate, on Aug. 23 — you will probably hear more about this issue.
Taking cues from Trump’s 2016 campaign playbook and presidency, other Republicans have already translated his disparagement of Mexicans and other Latinos into policy, particularly on immigration. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott put razor wire, floating barriers and state troopers along the U.S.-Mexico border to deter people from coming into the country illegally. The federal government sued Texas last week to try to stop him.
What is going on? The posture represents a genuine shift within Republican politics. For most of the past few decades, Republicans have backed closer ties with Mexico. (The 1990s free trade deal, NAFTA, had bipartisan support.) And in the first days of Trump’s presidency, most Republican voters said in polls that Mexico was an ally of the U.S. Now, Republican voters are evenly divided on whether Mexico is an ally or an enemy, as this chart shows:
Extreme approach
Republicans often portray the idea of fully militarizing the war on drugs as an evolution in policy: treating Mexican cartels like ISIS or other terrorist groups. But unilaterally deploying the military to Mexico would be a significant escalation of U.S. policy.
I spoke to half a dozen drug policy and counterterrorism experts across the political spectrum. All of them criticized the approach as extreme, ineffective and self-destructive. “In 35 years, this takes the prize as the stupidest idea I have ever heard,” said Jonathan Caulkins at Carnegie Mellon University.
In addition to the likely humanitarian toll and the hit to U.S. standing in the world, any incursion into Mexico could worsen the same problems Republicans are trying to address. To the extent that the U.S. has succeeded in stemming illegal immigration and drugs in recent years, it has relied on Mexico’s close cooperation. Both Trump and President Biden have worked with Mexican officials to stop South and Central Americans from traveling to the U.S. through Mexico.
Mexico would almost certainly stop collaborating if the U.S. sent troops or let missiles fly. Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has said that talk of sending the U.S. military south of the border is “irresponsible” and “an offense to the people of Mexico, a lack of respect for our sovereignty.”
Representatives of the Trump, DeSantis and Haley campaigns did not respond to questions about using the military against Mexican cartels. A spokeswoman for Scott restated his support for the idea, but didn’t respond to questions about whether he would ask for Mexico’s approval before deploying the military there.
Political talk
Some of the language can be pinned on the presidential primaries, when politicians tend to take more extreme stances on all sorts of issues before moderating themselves in the general election. That could be happening here.
Politicians are also desperate to look as if they are doing something about illegal immigration and the drug overdose crisis, often with deceptive promises of quick fixes and decisive action. But enduring solutions to these problems have eluded the U.S. for years.
THE LATEST NEWS
Times 2024 Poll
Trump is dominating the field for the Republican nomination, the first Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 campaign shows.
DeSantis is 37 percentage points behind. He would still lose even if every other Trump challenger disappeared, the poll found.
Despite his indictments, Trump’s loyal base of supporters is large enough to make him extremely hard to defeat, Nate Cohn writes.
International
An explosion at a political rally in Pakistan killed at least 43 people.
A recent military takeover in Niger has completed a coup belt in Africa — a line of six countries in turmoil. West African leaders threatened military action unless Niger’s coup is undone.
The military in Myanmar is escalating its brutal assault against civilians, a Times visual investigation found.
Scientists revived roundworms that spent roughly 46,000 years in Siberian permafrost.
Climate
Extreme heat has cost the U.S. economy billions in lost productivity as it has made it harder for people like delivery drivers to do their jobs.
Temperatures have been at least 110 degrees in Phoenix for 31 straight days. Patients with heat stroke and asphalt burns are filling hospitals.
German shepherds on their way to police training in Indiana died in the heat after an air-conditioning unit failed.
War in Ukraine
Ukraine recaptured a small village, offering the country some hope during a grinding counteroffensive.
A spending boom in Russia has propped up its economy and helped maintain public support for the war, but some analysts worry it has created a bubble.
Unlike most European Union countries, Austria is still buying nearly as much natural gas from Russia as it was before the war.
Russia is using games like Minecraft to spread propaganda.
Other Big Stories
A North Carolina lawmaker, elected as a Democrat, switched parties and helped Republicans enact a restrictive abortion policy.
California officials are shutting down homeless camps and moving people into temporary housing.
An “X” sign that was installed on the roof of Twitter’s headquarters as part of its rebranding lacked the right permits, officials said.
A New Jersey school district agreed to pay $9.1 million to settle a lawsuit related to a sixth grader who died by suicide.
Opinions
Anorexia runs in families, but passing it to one’s child is far from inevitable, Jillian Weinberger writes.
New Mexicans are still living with the fallout from the first atomic test, Tina Cordova writes.
Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss Hunter Biden.
MORNING READS
Lucrative collectors: When they die, who gets the comic books?
A husband with a Parisian pied-à-terre: Together this couple fixed it up.
Metropolitan Diary: Hung over and waiting for the No. 1 train.
Lives Lived: Hugh Carter Jr. helped run his cousin Jimmy Carter’s presidential campaign. As an aide, he helped trim the White House budget and was called “Cousin Cheap.” He died at 80.
WOMEN’S WORLD CUP
Australia, a co-host, faces Canada with its fate on the line.
Colombia beat Germany with stunning goals, including a header in stoppage time.
The American superstar Megan Rapinoe has been sitting on the bench while her team plays, and she’s not happy about it.
OTHER SPORTS NEWS
Losing a star: The Mets agreed to trade Max Scherzer to the Rangers.
Going to the Dodgers? Justin Verlander could be heading west before tomorrow’s trade deadline.
Firing back: Aaron Rodgers slammed the Denver head coach Sean Payton, saying his comments about the Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett were “out of line.”
ARTS AND IDEAS
Hold the shot, please: The word mocktail once sounded like a joke, underscoring the mild embarrassment that came with ordering a virgin mojito. But as more people cut back on alcohol, mocktails have become a regular, and often inventive, feature of bar menus.
Distillers have developed new nonalcoholic spirits to meet the demand. This guide highlights the best for making zero-proof cocktails at home.
More on culture
Cardi B threw her microphone into a crowd during a performance after someone apparently tossed a drink onstage. CNN has a video of the episode.
A dig in Rome has unearthed traces of a theater that archaeologists believe was built by Nero.
Montecito, home to Oprah, Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan, captures the current American dream: wellness.
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …
Crisp potatoes for these tacos.
Write with the best pen.
Shop for early back-to-school deals.
Take our news quiz.
GAMES
Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was payphone.
And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle and Sudoku.
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German
P.S. Simon Romero is joining The Times’s Mexico City bureau to cover migration, climate change and more.
Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com.