The war in Ukraine appears to be on the cusp of a new phase.
Russia has intensified its missile attacks in recent days and called up about 300,000 new troops this winter. Many of them have gathered in eastern Ukraine, apparently preparing for an assault.
Russia’s goal seems to be the seizure of the entire Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine, by overwhelming Ukrainian forces with troops. “This is what has the Ukrainians beside themselves with worry,” said my colleague Michael Schwirtz, who has been reporting from Donbas. As a wounded Ukrainian soldier named Pavlo told Michael, “It’s particularly difficult when you have 50 guys and they have 300.”
Today’s newsletter offers one of our occasional updates on the state of the war, with Times reporters around the world helping to answer two basic questions: What is Russia’s latest strategy? And what is Ukraine’s?
“There are signs that both sides are going to do something in the weeks and months to come,” Julian Barnes, a Times correspondent in Washington, told me.
Russia’s strategy
The war is almost a year old, and it has clearly gone much worse than Vladimir Putin expected. Russia has gained control of Ukrainian territory in the east and south but has been rebuffed elsewhere. U.S. officials estimate that about 200,000 Russian troops have been wounded or killed.
Still, even with all his failures, Putin has reason to believe Russia’s position might improve this year. He is relying on two dynamics. First, Russia is a much larger country, with many more resources, than Ukraine. Second, the war’s outcome matters more to Ukraine and Russia than to Ukraine’s foreign allies. That gap could ultimately cause Ukraine’s allies to slow their supply of crucial weapons and equipment.
“The strategy of Putin is to wait out the West,” Julian said, “then push again to seize so much land and kill so many Ukrainians that they negotiate an end to the war from a position of weakness and Volodymyr Zelensky’s government falls.”
So far, the West has remained largely united behind Ukraine. The latest sign of support: modern tanks that the U.S., Britain and Germany agreed to supply. But there are reasons to wonder how long the support will last. Germany seems conflicted about how strongly to confront Russia, and Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has refused to say that Ukraine must win the war. In the U.S., some Republicans have criticized the military aid and argued that Ukraine is not America’s problem.
Russia is hoping to claim a new victory this week by seizing control of Bakhmut, a city in Donbas. (On Sunday, Russian fighters claimed to have captured a village just outside the city.) From there, they hope to take over more of the region. “Russia is going to try to surround Donbas and cut it off and wrest it away fully from Ukraine,” Michael told my colleague Claire Moses.
U.S. officials remain skeptical that Russia’s larger campaign to overrun eastern Ukraine will succeed, given the state of the Russian military. The troops called up in recent months are mostly inexperienced, and the war has already used up a lot of munitions and equipment.
“The Russians may have the desire for a major operation,” Julian said. “They lack the means.”
Ukraine’s strategy
Many analysts believe that a stalemate remains the most likely scenario for the rest of 2023. But both Ukraine’s leaders and the Biden administration believe a better outcome is plausible. The coming infusion of new military equipment, like the tanks, is a sign of this optimism.
The tanks have the potential to help Ukraine achieve its biggest medium-term objective: breaking the so-called land bridge that Russia has established between the territory it controls in the east, including in Donbas, and in the south, on the Crimean Peninsula. Doing so would be symbolically important for Ukraine and would make it costlier for Russia to supply troops in both regions.
One initial aim for Ukraine may be recapturing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, inside the land bridge. “The plant provides an enormous amount of electricity,” Julian said. “Taking it back would be the biggest gain of the counteroffensive to date.”
To prepare for its coming push, Ukraine has pulled some troops from the front lines and sent them to Germany, Britain and Poland. There, they are being trained in new units and learning how to use the tanks, artillery tubes and other equipment the West has recently supplied.
What’s next
Some observers think Russia has already begun its latest push, with the missile attacks signaling the start. Others think that the war’s next phase is still at least several weeks away; they argue that the more likely time for either side to launch a full offensive is this spring, after the weather warms and mud season has ended.
The next big diplomatic question is whether Ukraine’s allies will send fighter jets, like the American F-16. To date, President Biden and Scholz have said no. Even if they change their minds, as seems plausible, the jets will not be helpful to Ukraine anytime soon.
“To train someone on an F-16 is even harder than training them on a tank,” said Steven Erlanger, The Times’s chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe. “It would make a difference, presuming it’s a long war. Which it may be.”
More Ukraine news
If you want to dig into each side’s strategy, these maps are helpful.
Some Russians, angered by the war, are fighting for Ukraine.
THE LATEST NEWS
Flying Objects
The U.S. and Canada are investigating three unidentified flying objects shot down over Alaska, the Yukon and Michigan.
The Biden administration is facing pressure to offer an explanation, but officials are unsure what the latest objects are or who sent them.
International
Turkey is investigating constructors with ties to collapsed buildings after last week’s earthquake, but some are asking: What about the officials who signed off on the work?
The earthquake shattered the lives of many Syrian refugees who had already fled their country’s civil war.
A Yale professor suggested that older people in Japan should die by mass suicide, fueling a heated conversation on elder care in the country.
Politics
Bernie Sanders is leading the Senate health committee, a job that gives him the power to summon billionaires to testify before Congress.
Ron DeSantis, Florida’s governor, is carefully avoiding clashes with Donald Trump as DeSantis prepares for an expected presidential run.
The special counsel investigating Trump is moving quickly to determine if he should face charges.
Other Big Stories
Mississippi left millions in Covid aid unspent — revealing broader health care failures on the state and federal level.
A woman used the identities of dozens of dead people, from infants to adults, to steal more than $45,000 of government funds.
Some tech workers are facing layoffs during parental leave, a blow after being drawn to companies’ generous family policies.
Opinions
Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss the State of the Union and the economy.
More sex is the solution to America’s loneliness epidemic, Magdalene Taylor argues.
Rising seas, bigger storms and eroding coastlines are destroying surfing, Tyler Fox writes.
MORNING READS
Invader mosaics: An artist has altered the aesthetic of Paris.
Vows: Love comes to those who wait (by the bar).
Metropolitan Diary: A Central Park poem.
Quiz time: Take our latest news quiz and share your score (the average was 9.0).
Advice from Wirecutter: Check out these last-minute Valentine’s Day gifts.
Lives Lived: David Jolicoeur, also known as Trugoy the Dove, was a member of De La Soul, a rap trio that expanded hip-hop’s stylistic vocabulary and was an MTV staple. He died at 54.
SUPER BOWL
Kansas City wins: Patrick Mahomes powered the Chiefs to a late comeback win against the Eagles in a high-scoring Super Bowl.
Game-defining penalty: A flag with under two minutes left changed the game. The Eagles player responsible admitted: “It was a holding.”
Surprise announcement: Rihanna used the halftime show to nod to her beauty business and reveal that she’s pregnant. Her performance ranks among the game’s best.
SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
Canceled season: New Mexico State announced its men’s basketball team will not finish the 2022-23 season after hazing allegations arose.
Sidelined: The Pelicans superstar forward Zion Williamson will miss “multiple weeks” with a lingering hamstring injury.
ARTS AND IDEAS
A divisive Potter game
Hogwarts Legacy, a new video game set in the world of “Harry Potter,” lets you play as a young witch or wizard in the 1800s. It’s expected to be a hit, but it has become a source of controversy because of J.K. Rowling’s remarks about transgender people, Julia Jacobs writes.
Developers began working on the game in 2018 — two years before Rowling wrote a blog post criticizing transgender activists — and the game’s publisher says Rowling was not involved in its creation. Still, she stands to benefit from the game’s success, and because of that some gamers have decided to boycott it. “I feel a moral imperative to oppose Hogwarts Legacy,” said Percy Ranson, a transgender writer, on the Australian website GamesHub.
PLAY, WATCH, EAT
What to Cook
Turn cauliflower into popcorn.
What to Watch
The 50 best TV shows on Netflix right now.
What to Listen to
An ultra-Orthodox woman stops suppressing her gay desires.
Now Time to Play
The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was hyacinth. Here is today’s puzzle.
Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Noble gas below xenon (five letters).
And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David
P.S. See the portable typewriter used by Lester Bernstein, who relayed news of the attack on Pearl Harbor.
Here’s today’s front page.
“The Daily” is about naval warships.
Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.