There is still a lot we don’t know about the Chinese spy balloon and the three other objects the U.S. military shot out of the sky in recent days.
U.S. officials have not explained what kind of information the spy balloon was trying to obtain. They have revealed little about the other objects, though they did acknowledge yesterday that the three objects were not sending out communication signals. But we have yet to learn what those objects were or what they were for.
China’s role is another unanswered question. The U.S. has drawn a clear link between China and the spy balloon, though not with the other three objects. It’s not clear whether the balloon was a sign that China is getting more aggressive, or if the U.S. is simply now detecting a kind of surveillance China has been doing for a long time.
The lack of answers has prompted much speculation. Some of it is silly, including jokes about aliens and U.F.O.s. Much of it is serious, about a potential second Cold War, this time between the U.S. and China.
Today’s newsletter will break through the speculation and memes to explain what we know, and don’t, about these flying objects and the implications of escalating tensions between the world’s two biggest powers.
What we know
On three straight days starting Friday, the U.S. detected and shot down unidentified flying objects — first around Alaska, then over Canada and lastly over Lake Huron. They were low enough to pose a threat to civilian aircraft, John Kirby, a White House spokesman, said yesterday. (Here’s a timeline of the events.)
None made it as far into the U.S. as the earlier Chinese spy balloon, which drifted across the continental U.S. before the military shot it down on Feb. 4 near the coast of South Carolina.
China continues to insist that the balloon was a civilian weather research airship that was blown off course. U.S. officials have released more details about what they say is a Chinese spy program that has sent high-altitude balloons over more than 40 countries for years.
What we don’t know
There is still a lot that we don’t know about the three most recent objects: What were they? Where did they come from? What were they for? Those basic questions have prompted others:
Is the U.S. now finding objects that have been there all along? Maybe. “One of the reasons that we think we’re seeing more is because we’re looking for more,” Kirby said. The U.S. has made new investments in its detection capabilities and tweaked existing systems to be more sensitive, partly in response to the Chinese spy balloon. Those systems could be picking up things that have long populated the sky, including more benign objects like airborne trash. (Thousands of balloons are floating above the Earth at any given moment, one expert said.)
Are the objects meant to spy on the U.S.? They could be, but officials have not confirmed or denied that. America’s adversaries, like China or Russia, could also be testing what they can fly over the U.S. without officials’ noticing.
Is it aliens? “There is no indication of aliens or extraterrestrial activity with these recent takedowns,” the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, said yesterday.
Is the U.S. using similar surveillance technology over China? American officials denied China’s allegations that the U.S. is flying high-altitude balloons over Chinese airspace. That response leaves open the possibility that the U.S. is using balloons over disputed territory or that it surveils China through other means, such as planes and satellites, as it has in the past.
The broader context
Relations between the U.S. and China had deteriorated in recent years as the Trump and Biden administrations took a more aggressive tone than previous administrations and imposed trade restrictions. But officials from both countries had recently started to work to mend ties.
The balloon episode could hurt those efforts. “As the U.S. has made clear it’s not going to just let this fade, the Chinese response has gotten more aggressive,” said my colleague Vivian Wang, who covers China.
In that sense, the flying objects are a case study for how tensions between the U.S. and China can rapidly escalate. Many analysts worry that existing strains between the two countries, like those over the status of Taiwan and China’s territorial claims over nearby waters, could quickly transform into a deadly conflict.
“That could be Taiwan. It could be the South China Sea. It could be an unplanned military encounter in the sea or air,” said my colleague Chris Buckley, who also covers China. “As we see with balloons — who predicted a balloon mini-crisis? — the possible permutations are endless.”
There is another side to this, too: the risk of de-escalating too far. For years, some analysts have argued that the U.S. has done too little to contain China. In its response to the balloon, the Biden administration may be trying to show China that the U.S. is taking a more forceful approach than it has in the past.
Commentary
The U.S. is overreacting to fairly conventional spying, Emma Ashford argues in Foreign Policy. Matthew Kroenig thinks the U.S. was right to respond forcefully.
The U.S. and China have few offramps for de-escalating a crisis, and the next one could be much harder to defuse, Fareed Zakaria writes in The Washington Post.
To limit speculation about the other objects the U.S. shot down, President Biden should share what he knows, Michael Brendan Dougherty writes in National Review.
“After the spy balloon, the U.S. started changing how it looked in the skies,” Julian Barnes, The Times’s national security reporter, said on today’s episode of The Daily.
For more
The U.S. began tracking the spy balloon as it lifted off from Hainan Island in southern China in January.
An academic is at the center of China’s ambitions to watch the world from the sky.
THE LATEST NEWS
Michigan State Shooting
A gunman killed three people and wounded five on the Michigan State University campus.
The suspect, a 43-year-old who had no affiliation with the university, died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound after a manhunt.
“Run, Hide, Fight”: Students locked down for hours after receiving an email alerting them to the active shooter.
International
A shortage of shelter is threatening earthquake survivors in Turkey and Syria, many of whom are living outdoors in extreme cold. More than 35,000 people have died.
An upscale tower in Turkey advertised itself as earthquake safe. It collapsed anyway.
About 100,000 people demonstrated in Jerusalem against a plan to limit judicial influence by Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government.
War in Ukraine
Ukraine’s army barred aid groups from entering Bakhmut as fighting there intensified. If the city falls, it would be Russia’s biggest victory since last summer.
An American paramedic in Ukraine died in an intentional strike, not an indiscriminate shelling, a Times investigation found.
“Sitting ducks”: Russia is sacrificing poorly trained ex-convicts on the front lines of its offensives.
A secretive network is helping dissidents arrange daring escapes from Russia and avoid long prison sentences.
Other Big Stories
President Biden fired the Capitol’s top facilities official, who stayed away from the building during the Jan. 6 attack.
A missing $365,000: Representative George Santos’s failure to account for hundreds of thousands in spending is part of a pattern.
A man drove a U-Haul truck onto sidewalks in Brooklyn, killing one person and striking eight others.
The College Board frustrated some supporters by altering its Black studies course after criticism from conservatives.
Opinions
Can ChatGPT capture love? Try the valentine generator and decide for yourself.
Go ahead, ban my book, Margaret Atwood writes in The Atlantic. It’ll make people want to read it more.
MORNING READS
Fox hunting fights: A clash of classes on England’s muddy fields.
Complete me: Test your knowledge of rom-coms.
History of hearts: The universal symbol of love has changed with the internet.
Sustainable skyscraper? A Manhattan building was designed with climate change in mind — but its features are already outdated.
Times classics: The 36 questions that lead to love.
Lives Lived: Ted Lerner bought the floundering Washington Nationals in 2006 and oversaw the team’s thrilling rise to a 2019 World Series victory, its first major league championship in 95 years. He died at 97.
SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
The ghost runner: Major League Baseball is adding the extra-inning baserunner to the game on a permanent basis. The rule — which places a runner on second base at the beginning of each half-inning if a game goes to extras — aims to shorten the game and preserve pitching arms.
Big viewership: About 113 million people watched Sunday’s Super Bowl, just missing the record set by the 2015 game.
ARTS AND IDEAS
A ring with the check, please
One if by Land, Two if by Sea, a restaurant in New York’s Greenwich Village, specializes in beef Wellington and proposals. During February, about 10 patrons pop the question each week.
The ambience is romantic, with white tablecloths and exposed brick. The restaurant staff also caters to the particularities of proposals. People sometimes visit ahead of the big day and map out the best spots for their hired photographers. And on the night of, the restaurant will bring out the ring in inventive ways — in a champagne glass, or on a platter covered with rose petals as a final course.
PLAY, WATCH, EAT
What to Cook
Flambé is for lovers: These three recipes set hearts (and dinner) alight.
What to Watch
A mockumentary, a teenage supernatural adventure and a melancholy mystery: Try these British shows.
What to Read
Siddhartha Mukherjee finds medical mystery and metaphor in the tiny cell.
Late Night
The hosts joked about the Super Bowl: “Rihanna revealed that she was pregnant, while the rest of us just ate like we were.”
Now Time to Play
The pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were accordion, draconian and draconic. Here is today’s puzzle.
Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Wood in which bourbon is aged (three letters).
And here’s today’s Wordle.
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — German
P.S. For Valentine’s Day in 1937, a Toronto doctor sent his wife an X-ray of his heart.
Here’s today’s front page.
Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.