


The Yankees will likely fancy their chances whenever they see the Royals on the schedule.
They looked as dominant as ever Monday, plating 10 runs in the series opener.
Over the past three seasons, the Yankees are 14-4 against Kansas City while suffering just one home loss.
Game 2 features a matchup between two right-handers, as Kansas City sends Seth Lugo to the hill, with the Yankees countering with Marcus Stroman.
Although Lugo has easily been the Royals’ best pitcher, this Yankees lineup has a knack for waiting out the starter and doing damage against opposing bullpens.
Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Royals | +124 | +1.5 (-166) | o8.5 (-118) |
Yankees | -148 | -1.5 (+140) | u8.5 (-102) |
At 79-66, Kansas City is in an excellent position to qualify for the postseason via a wild-card spot. Technically, the Royals still have a chance at a divisional title, trailing Cleveland by 3 1/2 games.
Kansas City has one glaring weakness — its offense.
The Royals have a below-average wRC+ rating of 99, the lowest mark among teams currently ahead of them in the playoff race. Therefore, there’s minimal margin for error, particularly when they come up against MLB’s better teams.

The Yankees have some familiarity facing Lugo from his time with the Mets. According to Baseball Savant, this current Yankees roster has a .265 average with a .337 wOBA in 95 plate appearances against the right-hander.
Lugo tends to pitch backward, throwing his curveball (26%) more than any other pitch in his arsenal. He also complements his fastball with a sinker to help induce ground balls and keep the ball inside the park.
However, the Yankees score a league-best 32.7 runs above average against the sinker and rank second against the more traditional four-seam fastball (+31.2).
Those numbers don’t necessarily bode well for Lugo in this start.
Stroman continues to defy the odds in his first season with the Yankees. He’s been a regression candidate for quite some time, thanks to a 4.73 FIP that’s 0.70 runs higher than his traditional ERA.
Yet, while he has a 10-7 record, New York is winning 63 percent (17-10) of his starts. Thus, even when Stroman has to exit the game from a losing position, this Yankees lineup is potent enough to bail him out.
Stroman has good numbers against the Royals, who are hitting .211 with a .270 wOBA in 102 plate appearances. His ability to limit the Royals to an average launch angle of 4.5 degrees has been equally impressive.
Although Stroman is hardly a fly-ball pitcher, his HR/9 ratio has almost doubled from 0.59 to 1.13.
To compensate for a loss in velocity (his average fastball is down from 92 mph to 89.9), he’s increased his cutter usage from 9.6 to 18.1 percent.
The cutter could be especially crucial Tuesday night, considering the Royals are scoring 9.2 runs below average against the pitch.
Monday’s game was another example of the Royals’ bullpen struggles, as their relievers allowed seven runs in the seventh and eighth innings, pushing their bullpen ERA to 4.54 on the season — the sixth-worst mark in the league.
One interesting angle that’s been very profitable is backing the Yankees in a game where they lost Stroman’s previous start.
You’d have to go back to April 10 against the Marlins to find the last time they lost consecutive starts by the right-hander.
With Stroman coming off a road loss against the Rangers, that trend is back in play.
Best bet: Yankees moneyline (-140, Caesars)