The Yankees will turn to their ace to get them a win at Fenway Park on Sunday afternoon.

Max Fried, who is currently the second-favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award behind Tarik Skubal, will get the ball, looking for his first win against the Red Sox as a member of the Yankees.

Fried has been sensational in his first season with the Bronx Bombers. The former Brave is 9-1 with a 1.84 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and a .198 batting average against.

The 31-year-old can rack up the strikeouts, but his success has been built on his pinpoint control.

Fried boasts one of the best walk rates in all of baseball, and his ability to induce ground balls makes him a master at wriggling off the hook.

Fried’s underlying numbers suggest he should come back to earth, but there’s nothing alarming in his predictive stats.

He’s been as advertised and should give the Yanks a terrific chance to win Sunday against Brayan Bello and the Sox. 

Bello, too, is a master at inducing ground balls, but the rest of his statistical profile is ugly. His expected batting average against is .293, and his xERA is 5.25.

Bello’s issues stem from a lack of control – he’s walked 11 percent of the batters he’s faced – without the ability to get strikeouts. That’s a brutal combination against any offense, let alone the Yankees’. 

The Yankees are the league’s most patient offense, and they lead the Majors in home runs, so they will punish you for giving them extra outs.

Sometimes it’s best to keep things simple, and in this case, that means a play on the Yankees to cover the run line, while also considering some alternate lines for the full game, or even in the first five innings.

The play: Yankees -1.5

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.