The Yankees won the Subway Series opener in thrilling fashion on Tuesday, coming away with a 7-6 victory. 

Tonight, we should get another great game.

Gerrit Cole. Justin Verlander.

A starting pitching matchup for the ages – these two have a combined 14 All-Star appearances. 

I’m betting on more exciting baseball in Queens on Wednesday.

But there is one massive, glaring issue: These two guys are getting old. 

Let’s start with Gerrit.

Cole has lost some juice on his fastball, as his velocity is down a tick, and the Stuff+ rating on the pitch is down about 17 points (Stuff+ is an advanced pitching model that attempts to capture the “nastiness” of a pitch based on its physical characteristics). 

As a result, Cole’s strikeout minus walk rate has dropped 10% from last season, and his 17.5% rate would be the lowest since 2017.

His ground-ball rate has also dropped 5%, and his 37.8% rate would be the lowest since 2018.

So, Cole’s expected ERA is the highest in a half-decade, sitting at a tad over 4.00.

His ERA still sits below 3.00, but he’s been lucky with a low BABIP (.276, career .296) and a high strand rate (81.7%, career 76.7%). 

Cole is getting older, and he’s regressing with age. 

Let’s move on to Verlander because he is regressing even harder.

The Stuff+ rating and velocity on Verlander’s fastball have crashed, and his curveball’s put-away percentage (the rate of two-strike pitches converted into strikeouts) has been halved. 

As a result, his strikeout numbers have significantly declined, and his walk rates have jumped. 

His batted-ball profile has also crumbled, as he’s allowing far more hard-hit balls. 

So, Verlander’s expected ERA also sits above 4.00, and his actual ERA is approaching 5.00. 

The right-hander is now 40 years old and losing the stuff that made him a three-time Cy Young winner.

It’s wild to say, but it’s hard to project either pitcher as much better than a mid-rotation starter, yet the market is pricing these two as Cy Young contenders. 

That immediately leads me to believe this total is far too low. 

Meanwhile, neither bullpen gives me confidence.

The Mets’ relief core has been bad without Edwin Diaz (bottom-five in reliever expected FIP), and the Yankees used six of their highest-leverage relievers in Tuesday’s one-run victory. 

And neither defense gives me much confidence.

The Mets grade out as a bottom-12 defensive team by both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, and we have to significantly downgrade the Yankees’ outfield defense with Judge sidelined. 

Ah, yes, Judge. The Yankees will be without Judge again, while the Mets will be without Pete Alonso, and neither team has been hitting without their superstar sluggers in the lineup. 

But there will be too many opportunities for runs considering the overvalued starting pitchers and taxed bullpens. 

The market overvalued Tuesday’s starting pitchers, Luis Severino and Max Scherzer, while undervaluing the shorthanded lineups, resulting in the first Subway Series game flying over the listed total. 

I expect the same result on Wednesday, and I’m willing to bank on that with a play on the over 7.5 (-105) available at Caesars. 

Over 7.5 runs (-105, Caesars)