The New York Yankees have been fortunate enough to win their first three series through plate discipline, timely power hitting and a competent bullpen.

But they rank outside the top 10 in every category of advanced pitching metrics, which suggests some regression is due.

Their 3.07 ERA entering Monday ranked eighth in MLB but its 4.60 xFIP was 29th. 

Carlos Rodon starts Tuesday against Miami.

In his first two starts, he was saved by the bell with sound relief pitching in tandem with late run support. Rodon’s ERA-xERA difference of -3.97 draws some upside for ravenous Miami Marlins hitters.

Miami is scuffling for wins, but it’s projected to pump out more production after having produced excellent quality on contact numbers through its first 11 games. 

Marlins starter A.J. Puk has been a walk machine, allowing batters to take bases on balls at a 25.7 percent rate in two starts. 

Puk hasn’t pitched into the fifth inning, and Miami’s bullpen had surrendered the most hits in the majors as of Monday. 

The Marlins also had yielded the second-most runs before allowing seven more in Monday’s 7-0 defeat. Let’s gear up for a high-volume scoring affair.

THE PLAY: Yankees-Marlins Over 8 (-115, FanDuel)