The Yankees are playing some great baseball.
New York clinched a series victory over Seattle with Tuesday’s win, outscoring the Mariners 20-6 across the two games.
The Yanks are working on a four-game winning streak, are 19-9 in May, and are within five games of first place in the AL East.
Hopefully, they can overcome Clarke Schmidt’s relatively poor season performance in the series finale.
I’m unsure if the Yankees ultimately win, but I expect a rock-solid performance from Schmidt alongside Seattle starting pitcher George Kirby.
(9:40 p.m. ET. YES)
I think Schmidt has been unlucky.
His 5.58 ERA is propped up by an uber-high .378 BABIP and a relatively low 65% strand rate.
As a result, his expected ERA is below 5.00, and his expected FIP is below 4.00.
Moreover, the advanced pitching models love Schmidt.
FanGraphs’ Pitching+ model “uses the physical characteristics, location, and count of each pitch to try to judge the overall quality of the pitcher’s process.”
Among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched this season, Clarke ranks ninth in Pitching+, sandwiched in-between Zac Gallen and Joe Ryan.
I expect Schmidt to be just fine.
Meanwhile, Kirby checks in at fifth via Pitching+.
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He doesn’t have the most electric stuff, but he has a preternatural command of the strike zone (2.4% walk rate) and a deep arsenal of secondary pitches.
Kirby got roughed up his last time out against Pittsburgh, but he recorded a 2.17 ERA in the eight starts prior. I’m betting on a bounce-back performance.
I’m pretty high on this starting pitching matchup, and I’m really high on each bullpen.
Over the past two weeks, the Mariners and Yankees both rank among the top-eight teams in reliever expected FIP.
And after consecutive Yankee blowouts, both bullpens enter the series finale fully rested.
Meanwhile, the weather at T-Mobile Park should be pitcher-friendly on Wednesday.
We’re expecting chilly, high-50s temps and wind blowing directly in from left field, thus deading fly balls. BallParkPal’s model estimates a -15% Run Factor for this game (i.e., we expect 15% fewer runs than normal given the weather conditions).
So, I’m banking on a low-scoring ballgame.
I am worried about these two red-hot, ever-dangerous, hard-hitting offenses.
But after combining for 26 runs in 18 innings on Monday and Tuesday, I think we’ll see some scoring regression across nine innings on Wednesday.
The Action Network’s PRO model projects this total at 7.15, giving us plenty of value on the under 7.5 (-105) available at Caesars.
Additionally, almost 90% of the betting tickets for this game are on the over, but the line has moved slightly toward the under, meaning we’re making the sharp, contrarian play.
Under 7.5 (-105, Caesars)