The Mariners were finally starting to heat up but ran into an offensive firestorm on Memorial Day, as the Yankees won 10-4 on Monday.
However, I expect a bounce-back performance from the Mariners on Tuesday behind their stud starting pitcher and surprisingly effective bullpen.
Odds via Caesars, were current at time of writing, subject to change.
(via Caesars)
Moneyline: Yankees (+122) vs. Mariners (-145)
Spread: Yankees +1.5 (-178) vs. Mariners -1.5 (+150)
Total: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)
(9:50 p.m. ET. MLB Network)
Despite yesterday’s loss, Seattle is still playing good baseball.
After going 12-17 in April, the Mariners are 16-10 in May with a +30 run differential.
They’ve won two consecutive games behind dominant starting performances from today’s pitcher, Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert has been an above-average pitcher all season, but his peripherals show he’s elite.
He boasts a 2.89 expected ERA and 25.3% strikeout minus walk rate.
Gilbert is leading the league in extension, forcing chases and allowing few free passes.
Everything is working for him.
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Yankees starting pitcher Nestor Cortes is due for positive regression (5.30 ERA, 3.69 expected ERA), but he’s still a tier below Gilbert in my betting power ratings.
Also, Seattle has a higher wRC+ against left-handed pitching than New York has against right-handed pitching during May – i.e., Cortes will have a tougher opponent than Gilbert today.
And to my surprise, the Mariners have the best bullpen in baseball over the past month.
During this stretch, Seattle leads the league in reliever expected FIP and strikeout minus walk rate while ranking second in reliever ERA.
The M’s have gotten monster contributions from Trevor Gott (1.82 ERA), Tayler Saucedo (0.82 ERA), Justin Topa (3.48 ERA), and Paul Sewald (3.08 ERA, 11 saves).
It’s also worth mentioning that both bullpens are fully rested after Monday’s blowout, so there are no usage problems here.
Tuesday’s a great spot for the Mariners to bounce back behind Gilbert and their dominant relief core.
I’ll bet on Seattle at anything better than (-150).
Mariners ML (-145, Caesars) | Play to ML (-150)