There aren’t many positive storylines surrounding the Mets, but one of them has been a return to form from Luis Severino, who owns a 3.22 ERA and is becoming a valuable piece to sell if David Stearns decides to do so before the deadline.
Severino will look to continue showing well for potential suitors Friday as he takes on the struggling Diamondbacks.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will finish off their lengthy West Coast swing with a weekend set at Oracle Park in San Francisco.
Friday’s series opener features quality pitching as Marcus Stroman likely takes on Jordan Hicks.
Mets fans will have every motivation to cheer for another strong outing from Severino, and it seems reasonable to expect the right-hander’s steady form to continue.
Severino owns a 3.43 xERA and an xFIP of 4.22.
He owns a strong Stuff+ rating of 106 and has limited batters to a 37.2 percent hard-hit rate.
The Diamondbacks have greatly underperformed expectations on offense, which has been the main cause of their sub .500 record.
They hold a wRC+ of only 75 over the last two weeks, with a BB/K ratio of just 0.24. Arizona also owns an OPS of just .664 against right-handed pitching in 2024.
Diamondbacks starter Jordan Montgomery’s disappointing 4.98 ERA is another reason the Diamondbacks are off to a slow start.
However, he owns an xERA of 4.62, and a 4.26 xFIP, which suggests he has been slightly better than his overall numbers.
Montgomery has improved his K-rate to 16 percent and his hard-hit rate to 31 percent over the past three outings. He also owns a 2.70 ERA on the road, away from hitter-friendly Chase Field.
The Mets have hit to a wRC+ of 90 versus left-handed pitching this season.
Their offensive upside is further reduced if Pete Alonso remains sidelined in this matchup.
Severino’s strong ERA comes with a convincing underlying profile, and he should fare well versus a Diamondbacks side which is suffering through a trying stretch of play at the plate.
Montgomery is a better pitcher than he has shown and should be able to continue his strong road form in this matchup.
A total of 7.5 looks a little too high, and there is value in betting the Under at anything better than -125.
Recommendation: Under 7.5 runs (-118, BetRivers)
Stroman’s dominance has been a pleasant surprise for the Yankees, who own the best team ERA in baseball at 2.76.
Stroman does appear to have had some pretty favorable luck to this point and could be due for lesser results moving forward.
Stroman owns an xERA of 4.41, and an xFIP of 4.09. Both of those numbers are comparable to what he put up last season when he finished with an ERA of 3.95.
Stroman’s Stuff+ rating of 95, and Location+ rating of 96 are worse than he put up in 2023.
His 1.96 SO/K is his worst mark of any of his last three seasons, and his career-high 83.3 percent strand rate appears to be the only reason he is posting such improved results.
Hicks has transitioned effectively to a role as a full-time starter.
He owns a 3.61 xERA, and an xFIP of 3.85, and his electric arsenal continues to rate well (112 Stuff+).
The Yankees provide a tough test for Hicks, but the Giants’ offense has been in fantastic form of late, with a wRC+ of 127 over the last two weeks.
Hicks projects to be the better of the two starters in this matchup moving forward, and for that reason, the Giants look like a worthy bet as an underdog in this matchup.
Recommendation: Giants moneyline (+118, FanDuel)