Toronto’s eight victories over the Yankees in 13 games ultimately crowned them the division — and the luxury of playing their No. 1 starter against New York’s No. 4 in Game 1 of the ALDS.
That’s Kevin Gausman on Saturday, who didn’t cast much of a shadow over these Yankees this year.
He recorded a pair of wins and a 3.97 ERA through four starts against them, though he tallied an underwhelming 7.3 K/9.
Gausman loves his four seamer and fires splitters more than any other pitcher in MLB.
He mixes these offerings with one another quite effectively — especially when he is ahead in the count.
A hitter’s eyes are easily deceived since his splitter appears as a fastball, but then abruptly vanishes downward.
He also has a nice feel for the strike zone, so when he throws outside the zone he elicits chases.
Now, you might be thinking at this point, “Gee, this guy has to be one heck of a strikeout artist.”
The reality is Gausman’s two favorite pitches have amassed a putaway rate of 17.7% and 21.5%, respectively.
While he’s seen an uptick in velocity, Gausman has regressed in the strikeout department since the peak of his career in 2019-23. He finished the campaign sporting a just fine 9.20 K/9.
There’s not a lot of postseason substance behind him either, and in the three career starts he made he printed a 4.91 ERA.
Gausman’s strikeout prop line against the Yankees is set at 6.5 for Game 1, which is pretty ambitious. He hit this mark in only 40.6% of his starts this year and in only two of his last eight facing New York.
The Yankees are an aggressive lineup and they struck out plenty (third-most in MLB), so that might correlate to this line being where it is.
At the same time, they chased pitches at the game’s lowest rate (25.5% per Statcast), and without bites outside the zone Gausman doesn’t have any other tricks in the bag.
I wouldn’t call it a bargain, but there’s enough market value on the Under here to take the price.
THE PLAY: Kevin Gausman Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-138, FanDuel)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.