


Juan Soto has surely been in a New York State of Mind throughout his first few weeks on the Yankees’ payroll.
It’s a promising sign when a marquee offseason acquisition is batting .354 through 79 at-bats. It’s certainly never a guarantee when a star transitions to the bright lights of the Big Apple.
Soto’s hot start has been nothing short of exceptional: He is the No. 2 overall player in WAR and is hitting the leather off the baseball, holding an eye-popping .465 xwOBA.
He’ll face Oakland’s JP Sears when the Athletics come to The Bronx on Monday afternoon to kick off a four-game series.
Sears has reeled in his command as of late, giving up only three hits over his last 11 ¹/₃ innings, but the former Yankees prospect takes the mound with some concerning exit velocity.
That presents some upside for Soto, who’s top one percent in MLB, to reach base.
Sears’ fastball has been specifically susceptible to hot contact, which is a pitch Soto has a plus-four run value against.
A big part of Soto’s plate success has been his discipline; he’s been swinging at a 36 percent rate, according to Statcast.
Sears hasn’t been able buy himself a strikeout through his four starts, dwelling in the bottom one percent of strikeout rate, which primes Soto to work up the count.
The lefty hitter versus lefty pitcher matchup here adds value to his total bases prop, but that hasn’t been a challenge for Soto so far — he’s hitting .370 against them.
THE PLAY: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, FanDuel)