The Orioles and Yankees justifiably arrived at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday as the best teams in the American League.
They were 1-2 in the league in runs per game (Orioles, then Yankees). They were 1-2 in all the majors in runs against per game (Yankees, then Orioles). And they were 2-3 in the AL in defensive efficiency (Yankees, then Orioles).
These were not accidental tourists. They had earned the distinction as the class of the league. In a fairer world they would be in different divisions and both would earn byes out of the best two-of-three wild-card round. But that is not this world. The likelihood of this season is that they will occupy the top two spots in the AL East and very possibly the best two records in the league.
You can point to how teams that have gotten byes and been off for several days have generally not performed well in the postseason the past few years. But 30 out of 30 heads of baseball operations and managers would pick trying to figure out how to avoid rust over the potential of having a bad 48 hours and being out of the playoffs via a best-of-three.
That heightened an already intriguing series for mid-June that will include, among other items, the 2024 debut of Gerrit Cole and the major league debut of Ben Rice. But for the Yankees there was more on the table.
The Yankees might have come to this series from Fenway Park, but that Rivalry is not what it once was. Houston had replaced Boston as the most hated foe. To some degree, the Yankees had filled the historic, pre-2004 Cursed Red Sox role in that matchup since the Astros had eliminated the Yankees four times in four playoff tries since 2015 — three of those in the ALCS. Add in the 2017 sign-stealing scandal and the vitriol felt for Yankee fans toward Jose Altuve, in particular, that felt Nomar-ish.
The Astros, however, might now be on the fade after seven straight ALCS appearances. But look who might be taking the baton: the Astros 2.0.
Baltimore GM Mike Elias and his main lieutenant, Sig Megdal, were important decision-makers in the Astros’ rise. And they followed a similar blueprint with the Orioles, tanking away a few seasons and hitting magnificently on key high draft picks to form the cornerstone of what sure looks like a franchise about to do a bunch of winning for a while, especially with private equity billionaire David Rubinstein as the deep-pocketed new owner.
Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker evolve into Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg.
The Orioles hinted at what was to come with an 83-victory breakout in 2022 followed by winning 101 games and the AL East last year as the Yankees rolled into an 82-80 “disaster” (hat tip to Brian Cashman). The teams played four games earlier this season at Camden Yards and the Orioles won three, holding the Yankees to a total of four runs.
“They’re a very good team,” said Yankees bench coach Brad Ausmus, who was serving as manager while Aaron Boone attended his son’s graduation. “I don’t like saying that this is a must-win series in June because I don’t think it is. But I think it’s an important series. Because they took three out of four when we were there.”
How important is this?
If the Yankees were not playing the Orioles would Cole have made another rehab start in his return from nerve inflammation in his elbow rather than start Wednesday in The Bronx? Well, Ausmus described Cole still in a buildup process, calling it “another step in returning him to the full Gerrit Cole Cy Young award winner.”
Conversely, the Yankees were missing the Orioles’ top two healthy starters, Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, in this series. In the last week, Baltimore had two starters, John Means and Tyler Wells, undergo season-ending elbow surgery. Kyle Bradish was lost with an elbow injury for the second time this year and the Orioles were awaiting more information to know how long the 2023 breakout will miss.
But the Orioles, like the Yankees, have continued to pitch well regardless of injury. And then there is the lineup that is good today with promise way beyond that. Baltimore has five players in their age-27-or-younger season qualified for the batting title with a 120 OPS-plus or better — or three more than any other team in 2024. The last team to have that many over a full season was the incubation of the Big Red Machine as Cincinnati in 1969 had Johnny Bench, Alex Johnson, Lee May, Tony Perez and Bobby Tolan do it.
The Orioles are young, talented and have overt confidence. You can look at them and wonder if the Yankees don’t do something to slow the train if they are going to have an Astro-nomic problem yet again.