Training camp is under way in the WNBA, with the league set to tip off in a few weeks. The biggest question this season is whether any team can stop the Las Vegas Aces from winning a third-straight title.
While there’s a regular season to be played, there’s a possibility we’ll witness a rematch of last year’s finals, with the Aces taking on the New York Liberty.
Las Vegas will no longer have Candace Parker on its roster as the 16-year veteran officially announced her retirement on Sunday. Parker played only 18 games last season before missing the rest of the season with a fractured left foot.
Nonetheless, the Aces will bring back 80% of their starting lineup, while all five starters return for the Liberty.
Las Vegas has the shortest price on the board to win the title at +100, while New York is second at +230.
Since you won’t get much of a return at those prices, I’ll share why the MVP race will also be a battle between the two best teams.
| Team | Odds | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces | +100 | Indiana Fever | +3300 |
| New York Liberty | +230 | Atlanta Dream | +4200 |
| Seattle Storm | +1000 | Minnesota Lynx | +4200 |
| Connecticut Sun | +1200 | Chicago Sky | +6500 |
| Dallas Wings | +2400 | Washington Mystics | +8500 |
| Phoenix Mercury | +2400 | L.A. Sparks | +10000 |
If you’re new to the WNBA, each team will play 40 games, with the regular season beginning on May 14 and ending on Sept. 19.
Like women’s college basketball, the league utilizes four 10-minute quarters but a 24-second shot clock like in the NBA.
Competition for spots throughout the league is very intense. Teams can’t have more than 12 players on the roster, and they must fit under the salary cap, which is $1,463,200 this season.
With a 40-minute game compared to 48 in the NBA, teams can lean a bit more on their starters. As a result, no team averaged more than 12.4 bench minutes last season.
It’s worth noting that the Liberty and Aces relied heavy on their starters, finishing near the bottom of the league in bench minutes with 10.2 per game.
The Aces made three playoff appearances under Bill Laimbeer, reaching the semifinals (2019, 2021) in two seasons while making a run to the finals in 2020.
Despite having one of the better teams in the league, Laimbeer was slow to embrace a more modern style of play that prioritized 3-point shooting. His retirement after the 2021 season allowed the Aces to try a different approach under new coach Becky Hammon.
In her first season, Hammon transformed Las Vegas into much more of a perimeter team, going from last in 3-point attempts (13.5) in 2021 to third (26.4) in the league.
The more puzzling aspect of Laimbeer’s reluctance is that the Aces were the second-best 3-point shooting team in 2021, converting on 37.5% of their attempts. Under Hammon, the Aces shot 36.1% in 2022 and 37.2% in 2023.
| Player | Odds | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | +140 | Jewell Loyd | +2000 |
| Breanna Stewart | +550 | Brittney Griner | +2000 |
| Alyssa Thomas | +1200 | Satou Sabally | +2000 |
| Caitlin Clark | +1200 | Sabrina Ionescu | +2000 |
| Kelsey Plum | +2000 | Nneka Ogwumike | +2200 |
While there’s no question that Aces forward A’Ja Wilson is a tremendous player, the one thing missing from her game is being a perimeter threat. Wilson averaged just 0.2 3-point field goals per game.
She had a tremendous year with 22.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 1.6 assists and 1.4 steals. However, New York’s Breanna Stewart is the more polished of the two players.
Stewart averaged 23 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.5 steals per game. She was also second on her team in 3-point field goals with 2.1 per game and shot 35.5%.
The Aces had four players (Wilson, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray) who finished in the top five in offensive win shares last season, behind Stewart at No. 1.
Stewart narrowly won her second MVP award by seven votes (446-439). Wilson finished third in the voting behind Connecticut’s Alyssa Thomas.
Thomas surprisingly had the most first-place votes (23), which are worth 10 points each, while Stewart was second (20) and Wilson third (17).
Thomas likely won’t get a better chance to win an MVP award after posting career highs in points (15.5), rebounds (9.9) and assists (7.9).
However, she only managed to finish 16th in offensive win shares (2.7), with her teammate, Tiffany Hayes (2.9), finishing ahead of her at No. 15.
While it’s always possible we’ll see another surprise entrant in the MVP race, Wilson is the current favorite at +140, followed by Stewart (+550) and Thomas (+1200, tied with Indiana rookie Caitlin Clark).
Wilson and Stewart deserve to be at the top of the board, but Stewart offers more value at her current price.
Thus, backing Stewart to win her third MVP would offer a better return than New York winning the title (+230) against an Aces team yet to show any signs of slowing down.