Novak Djokovic looked like his vintage self through his first three matches at Wimbledon. The Serb had dropped just one set, was broken just once in 42 service games, and had spent very little time under pressure.
But, things went south quickly for Djokovic against Alex de Minaur in the Round of 16. The 24-time Grand Slam champion made 16 unforced errors in the first set, which he lost in just over 30 minutes.
Things continued to look ugly in the second set, but he was able to turn a 4-1 deficit into a 6-4 win and then followed with two straightforward 6-4 sets to get the victory.
It was a funky win, but now that it’s over, it’s probably a good thing that Djokovic was able to withstand some tension in this tournament. Things won’t be as easy if he is to make it into the semifinals and beyond.
To get there, Djokovic will have to deal with rising Italian Flavio Cobolli.
Cobolli, like Djokovic, has endured very little resistance to this point at Wimbledon. His first two matches came against the World No. 247 and 281, respectively, and his only win over a player inside the top 80 was against No. 17 Jakub Mensik, who isn’t a real threat on grass at this point in his career.
You can’t take anything away from Cobolli, especially since he’s dropped just one set, but he’s taking a massive step up in competition on Wednesday.
In 13 matches against top-10 opponents, Cobolli is 1-12 with his only victory coming against Holger Rune, who retired after the first set. The 23-year-old won just two sets.
Perhaps Cobolli’s game continues to improve, and he’s able to punch up better in due time, but taking on Djokovic under the bright lights of Centre Court at Wimbledon seems like a terrible matchup for a player who has not had any success against the cream of the crop.
This one could be over quickly, but rather than back Djokovic to win in straights at -140, we’ll take the -120 on the match to go under 33.5 games.
The Play: Under 33.5 Games (-120, bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.