On paper, the Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars are not all that different.
They play with a ton of structure.
They both have superstar talent at the top of their roster.
And they both have strong goaltending.
Those are the ingredients for two teams that are comfortable playing low-event, grind-it-out games and betting on themselves coming out ahead.
But if you take a deeper look at these two teams, one seems to stand out as the better value in Game 1 and beyond.
(9:30 p.m. ET. ESPN2)
The Minnesota Wild played to uneven results for the first 50-plus games of the regular season, but they really caught fire with a 16-1-4 run from mid-February through the end of March.
Minnesota solidified its spot in the playoffs with that hot streak and put the Wild in a three-way race for the Central Division title with Dallas and the eventual winners, Colorado.
There’s no getting around being impressed with a team getting 33 of a possible 40 points in the NHL and posting a +23 goal difference along the way (especially since Minnesota played a large chunk of those games without Kirill Kaprizov).
Still, it’s worth pointing out that Minnesota’s goaltenders posted an absurd .936 save percentage in that timeframe. As good as Filip Gustavsson has been this season for the Wild,
it’s very hard to rely on that standard of goaltending.
It’s nice if you get it, sure, but to count on it would be playing a dangerous game.
As you’d expect, eventually, Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury’s form dipped a little bit, and the Wild posted a 2-2-1 record in their last five meaningful games (they were locked into the No. 3 seed by Game No. 80) and cost themselves a chance at a division title.
Despite that dip in form at the end of the season, Gustavsson and Fleury would give the Wild a decent goaltending advantage over plenty of teams in the playoffs.
Unfortunately, that is not the case against the Stars, who will look for Jake Oettinger to re-find his form from a performance for the ages against Calgary in Round 1 of last year’s tournament.
Whether or not that experience means anything for Oettinger this year can be debated, but Dallas fans will be confident in the 24-year-old after a regular season that saw him post a .919 save percentage and +11.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 62 games played.
The goaltending feels like a wash and both teams have reliable bluelines, but there is one distinct edge in this battle.
Minnesota’s best center, Joel Eriksson Ek, is doubtful to play a part in this series, meaning the Wild will be without their best two-way pivot.
That’s already a huge loss, but it also means the Wild will line up with Ryan Hartman, Frederick Gaudreau, Sam Steel, and Connor Dewar down the middle.
All due respect to those players, but there’s no true top-line center, and you could argue that Hartman and/or Gaudreau is more suited for a No. 3 role.
Meanwhile, the Stars will be able to roll with Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Tyler Seguin, and Radek Faksa down the middle.
It’s a huge advantage for Dallas and one that should provide a big enough difference to allow the Stars to win this series more often than these odds imply.
Dallas is in range for a bet in Game 1 and to win the series in less than six games.
Dallas Stars to win Game 1 (-140); Dallas Stars -2.5 Games (+275, BetMGM)