We are inching closer and closer to the most optimistic time of the basketball calendar: NBA Media Day.
Once we hear quotes like “best shape of my life” or “take the process one day at a time,” we know real basketball is just around the corner.
This season, the Knicks will head to training camp even sooner than most of the league as they gear up for a trip to Abu Dhabi, which means we’ll be hearing those quotes as early as this week. So, in the spirit of the return to grind of the NBA season, let’s take a look at the Knicks from a betting perspective and see what futures bets are worth making.
The talk around the Knicks for most of the offseason has centered around new head coach Mike Brown and how he can improve a team that fell just short of an NBA Finals appearance.
The Knicks finished third in the East last season with 51 wins, but 10 games behind the Celtics and 13 behind the Cavaliers. Those also happened to be the two teams the Knicks couldn’t beat all regular season.
Most sportsbooks have the Knicks sitting between 52.5 and 53.5 wins for the season.
That means that they would need to win just three more games to get over their highest number in a conference that got weaker.
They shouldn’t have to worry about the Celtics this season. Boston lost Jayson Tatum to an Achilles injury, and three other core players — Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Al Horford — were victims of the second apron. The almost NBA champion Pacers likely won’t have the same verve without Tyrese Haliburton, who will also miss the season with an Achilles injury.
That leaves the Cavaliers (56.5 win total) and Magic (51.5 win total) as the two teams in the Eastern Conference with expectations as high or higher than the Knicks coming into the season.
There are some key factors that benefit the Knicks this season.
They have feasted on bad teams over the past three campaigns, including posting a 32-8 record against teams below .500 last season. Going .500 in all their other games would have put the Knicks at 53 wins and a winning record would have them at 54 wins.
Easier said than done, of course, but in a conference that is suddenly weaker at the top, the Knicks simply have to be a slightly better version than last year’s team, and they can clear their win total.
One could argue they are significantly better with the players they signed in free agency and Mitchell Robinson (knock on wood) starting the season healthy.
The Knicks’ disjointed coaching search deservedly grabbed all the headlines over the summer and Brown will have to prove he can be more effective than Tom Thibodeau at utilizing his entire bench during the regular season. But the best parts of this team are all back.
I think this number is just too low considering the ceiling we saw from the Knicks during the postseason. I’ll back the ‘Bockers to hit the over this season at 53.5.
THE PLAY: Knicks Over 53.5 (-105, Fanatics)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.