The specter of Saquon Barkley playing the 2023 season on the one-year franchise tender of $10.1 million grows more likely with every passing day that goes by without a new deal in place. It is a scenario the Giants can live with, even as they prefer not to. It is not a scenario Barkley should see come to fruition.
Sure, players can bet on themselves, delaying money now for the potential of more money later. Sometimes it works out that way. It did for Aaron Judge with the Yankees. That is a different sport, though. No one is running into the massive Judge 20 times a game, seeking to inflict physical punishment.
Barkley at the bye week in early November turned down an offer averaging $12.5 million per year. Barkley in the first eight games averaged 93.8 yards and figured he could up the ante with a strong second half. He averaged only 66.6 yards in the last eight regular-season games. The Giants made the playoffs and slightly increased their offer to around $13 million per year.
Again, Barkley declined and the offer was taken off the table. Given what transpired with the financial downturn for running backs, it was a miscalculation.
One prominent player agent told The Post turning down an offer in the $12 million-$13 million a year range was “dumb” as long as the structure was fair — about 60 percent in guaranteed money. The agent believes the framework for a market-value Barkley deal should now average around $8 million or $9 million per year and that a three-year, $30 million package — with a guarantee of about $18 million — would be “pretty rich.’’
Barkley should know better than anyone the vagaries of the position he plays. One step, one cut, one swerve can lead to trouble.
He was struggling to regain his form following reconstructive right knee surgery when, on Oct. 10, 2021, a pass sailed over his reach as he finished his route against the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. There was no collision, no big hit, nothing. Barkley merely stepped directly on the foot of cornerback Jourdan Lewis, causing his left ankle to roll and then swell. He missed the next four games.
Barkley defied the odds in 2022 when he remained healthy and did not miss a game, for the first time since his 2018 rookie season.
If he plays on the one-year tender, every ache and strain could cost him time on the field, cutting into the statistical ammunition he would need to boost his résumé for a future deal. There is a promising rookie, Eric Gray, on the scene, selected in the fifth round of the NFL draft, and every player understands every snap he does not take is an opportunity for someone else to shine as the replacement.
The running back market tanked and it is the responsibility of player representatives to project this as accurately as possible. Take a look at what went down with Miles Sanders, a former teammate of Barkley’s at Penn State. Sanders in 2022 rushed for a career-high 1,269 yards (fifth in the NFL) and 11 touchdowns. Barkley came in at 1,312 yards (fourth in the league) and 10 touchdowns. Sanders signed a four-year, $25.4 million deal with the Panthers. That is an average of $6.3 million per year and Sanders received $13 million in guaranteed money.
No one is saying Sanders is the same caliber of player as Barkley. But their numbers last season were nearly identical. Both are 26 years old.
Take a look at Jamaal Williams. He ran for a career-high 1,066 yards with the Lions in 2022 and his 17 touchdowns were one fewer than Austin Ekeler’s league-leading 18. Williams hit the open market and the Saints signed him to a three-year deal worth $12 million, with $8.1 million in guaranteed money. Again, no one is comparing Williams with Barkley, but it did not bode well for the brotherhood of running backs that Williams could not cash in coming off a career year.
And let us not forget about Ekeler, who is entering the final year of the four-year, $24.5 million contract he signed in 2020. He has been a workhorse for the Chargers and is set to make $6.25 million this season.
“I’m so underpaid right now as far as my contract and what I contribute to the team,” Ekeler said recently on the Green Light with Chris Long podcast. “I’m getting half my value of what I could be getting.”
The Chargers gave Ekeler permission to seek a trade. So far, no takers. What does that tell you about how NFL teams are prioritizing running backs? The contracts of Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook feel like relics of a time gone by and Barkley needs to consider what staying with the Giants — his strong preference — will do for his psyche and his future earning potential.
Giants general manager Joe Schoen values Barkley for his status as a top-10 running back, his locker room presence and his “face of the franchise” loyalty and goodwill he creates. Schoen, however, is not desperate to get a deal done with Barkley. The previous two offers are off the table. A deal can get worked out. It is advisable for Barkley to make it work.