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Regardless of the identity of the Rangers’ next head coach, the cap issues confronting GM Chris Drury remain daunting.
The math did not change when Gerard Gallant and the organization cut ties following the seven-game first-round defeat to the Devils that, in retrospect, has actually turned out to be one of the least surprising outcomes of the tournament.
So working off The Post’s 14-man shadow roster including eight forwards (Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck, Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, Jimmy Vesey, Barclay Goodrow), five defensemen (Ryan Lindgren, Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba, Braden Schneider, Ben Harpur) and one goaltender (Igor Shesterkin), the Blueshirts will have just under $11.763 million to fill eight roster spots if indeed the cap increases only $1 million to $83.5 million as anticipated.
The cap is tentatively scheduled to increase to between $87.5 million and $88 million for 2024-25 and to approximately $92 million in 2025-26, but that does not make this summer any less challenging or tricky for Drury, who has both K’Andre Miller and Alexis Lafreniere coming up as restricted free agents without arbitration rights.
The Rangers obviously would be vulnerable to offer sheets on either former first-rounder — Miller 22nd overall in 2018 and Lafreniere first overall two years later.
But offer sheets are scarce. Unmatched and unmatchable offer sheets are even rarer.
Of course, the overwhelming majority of restricted free agents coming off entry-level contracts do not solicit offer sheets, either. Most offer sheets originate from a place of personal enmity between ownerships or out of revenge.
Management likely would seek to sign Miller and Lafreniere to bridge deals, say two or three years in the $3 million-to-$4 million range for the defenseman and the same length in the $2.5 million-to-$3 million range for the forward.
If the players go short-term, they’d probably want two years.
But there is certainly a chance that the 23-year-old Miller — who fell short of a breakout season because of inconsistencies in his own end, but dazzled through stretches with his ability at both ends of the ice — could attract a long-term offer on the market that the Rangers would have great difficulty in matching.
An offer with an AAV (annual average value) between $4,290,125 and $6,435,186 would bring back compensation of a first-rounder and a third-rounder in 2024. An offer of between $6,435,196 and $8,580,250 would yield compensation of a first-, second-, and third-rounder in 2024.
It is difficult to imagine how the Rangers would be able to match either hypothetical offer.
It is also difficult to imagine the Rangers without No. 79 and his 21:57 of ice time per game (second on the team to Fox) on the 1A/1B matchup pair with Jacob Trouba.
Miller is coming off a 43-point season (9-34) in which he received little power-play time.
There are, of course, underlying and advanced numbers that provide a more complete story, but the St. Paul native has recorded 75 career points (21-54) in 214 games.
A year ago, the Islanders’ Noah Dobson, the 12th overall selection in Miller’s 2018 draft year, entered restricted free agency with 72 points (17-55) in 160 games off 13-38-51 production in 2021-22. Dobson signed a three-year deal for an AAV of $4 million per.
Would that be enough to sign Miller? What do you think?
(I kind of think Charlie McAvoy’s second contract with the Bruins worth $4.9 million per for three years off 14-46-60 production in 117 games will enter the conversation.)
Lafreniere, who either has been mishandled by both Gallant and predecessor David Quinn or just has not shown enough to merit consistent top-six ice time (or a combination of both), is not as hot an item as Miller is.
It would take a leap of faith to present an offer sheet so lucrative that would allow No. 13 to take a leap from the organization.
It is imperative the Rangers get more production from Lafreniere (and from Kakko, as well). It would be stunning if the next coach does not start with Lafreniere among the top six, whether on the left or right. Lafreniere’s third coach should provide him with a proving ground.
Kirby Dach, selected third overall by Chicago in 2019 after Jack Hughes and Kakko, was traded to Montreal last summer after recording 59 points (19-40) in 152 games, or .39 per.
Lafreniere finished his third year with 91 points (47-44) in 216 games, or .42 PPG.
Dach signed a four-year deal for an AAV of $3,362,500 with the Canadiens after the trade. That might be an AAV amenable to Lafreniere, but probably for a two- or three-year term.
For argument’s sake, let’s say the Rangers get away with matching the sum of the deals on Dobson and Dach for Miller and Lafreniere. I’d argue they should be so lucky,
That would add $7,362,500 to the ledger. That would leave $4,400,417 to fill six spots … or just under $8.043 million to fill seven spots if Goodrow is traded.
Of course, the next coach will need more Goodrow-type players for ultimate success, not fewer. But that’s for another time.