Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proven, yet again, that he’s the ultimate master of both political indifference — and unpredictability.
Nearly a year after he cannily took advantage of America’s Biden-Harris political vacuum to dismantle Hezbollah in Lebanon, Netanyahu is finally taking out Iran’s nuclear armament sites following months — even years — of will-he-or-won’t-he brinksmanship. And it comes as the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, teetered on the brink of dissolution all week over the specter of compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox men.
As Netanyahu begins a potentially weeks-long campaign against Tehran, the stakes could not be higher for both Israel and its longest-serving prime minister. Springtime has seen his veneer of invulnerability finally begin to crumble.
In May, President Trump skipped Jerusalem during a tour of the Middle East that saw him strike billions of dollars worth of deals with Israel’s Arab neighbors.
Meanwhile, back at home, after 20 months of war with Hamas, Israeli soldiers have begun to openly refuse to serve in Gaza — an act of defiance as heretical as it is treasonous.
Traditional allies such as Canada, Australia and Great Britain have begun sanctioning Israeli ministers while France has even indicated it could soon recognize a Palestinian state. In Syria, Israel is still battling Islamist terrorists despite regime change in Damascus; Yemen’s Houthis continue to target Israeli civilian sites — while in Gaza, Netanyahu has turned to arming local Palestinian clans to help finally eradicate Hamas.
And so, Iran and Operation Rising Lion.
Israel scored impressive successes in its initial assaults on Iran, eliminating key members of its military leadership and heavily damaging crucial military bases, among them, Iran’s trio of nuclear facilities. No Israeli aircraft were lost during these opening volleys, which included a Mossad drone base operating from inside Iran. And none of Iran’s retaliatory drones managed to penetrate Israel’s missile defense systems. Israel may be effectively closed to air travel and Israelis sequestered at home — but early Friday’s military assault has been compared by many to 1967’s Six-Day War in its audacity and effectiveness.
But this is just the beginning. Both Netanyahu and Trump have indicated Rising Lion could extend for days, if not weeks. It won’t be enough for Israel to merely “hit” Iranian nuclear sites such as Natanz and Tabriz, it must render them incapable of enrichment to truly claim “mission accomplished.” That will require repeated assaults — along with the massive 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bombs supplied by the US.
Trump has made clear his support for Israel’s operation, describing it as “excellent” on Friday morning. But the US is not directly participating in Rising Lion, And Trump has warned Iran that Israel’s next wave of assaults could be “even more brutal” than the first in a push toward concession and deal-making (the status of Sunday’s bilateral talks in Oman remain uncertain). With Washington so enmeshed in finding an Iran “solution,” Trump may be unable to keep the US from joining Rising Lion, particularly if Iran’s next round of retaliatory strikes prove especially brutal.
Ultimately, however, Netanyahu’s toughest test won’t be in Washington or Tehran, but in Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem. Having avoided a dissolving of the Knesset that would have led to new elections, Netanyahu can focus squarely on the Iran crisis. And for the moment, Israelis appear united around their prime minister, with both Knesset majority and opposition figures praising the nation’s soldiers.
But Friday saw yet another call–up of military reservists, further straining a civilian population worn down — if not worn out — from months of conflicts in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon. Hours later, hundreds of Iranian missiles hit Israel amid wave after wave of retaliatory strikes. Three Israelis were killed and some 150 were wounded, a miraculously modest number, however tragic. But more attacks are almost certain and future numbers could be severe: White House envoy Steve Witkoff privately described an Iranian counter-campaign as a potential “mass-casualty” event of an extent never witnessed in the Jewish state.
For many Israelis, the war in Gaza — and Israel’s military campaigns across the Middle East — are proof that Netanyahu is committed not to protecting the Jewish people, but to the “forever war” that will keep him from facing his myriad legal scandals or a possible re-election defeat.
The prime minister may be indifferent, if not immune, to a world increasingly committed to isolating him. But if Operation Rising Lion fails to eventually come down to Earth, Israel’s Iran gamble — even if it defangs Tehran’s nuclear ambitions — could finally prove Netanyahu’s undoing.