It’s been three years since the signing of the Abraham Accords — the groundbreaking peace agreement that established diplomatic ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. Since then, all eyes have been on the richest prize of all — extending the accords to include Saudi Arabia. Now, this “crown jewel,” as Israeli officials describe it, appears to be gaining momentum in the form of a trilateral agreement that includes the United States.

The deal taking shape offers a lot: A boost to Middle East stability, pushback against the Iranian nuclear threat and increased economic cooperation. Such an agreement would reduce the need for US involvement in the region, while potentially transforming the entire Middle East. And media on both the right and left are buzzing all about it.

But rather than treating Israel-Saudi normalization like the momentous achievement it could be, President Biden appears to be using it as a tool for political expediency as the 2024 presidential election heats up. Indeed, Biden’s action in the Middle East over the past few weeks suggests that rather than focusing on lasting diplomacy, he’s merely trying to buy quiet from the region until November 2024. 

Case in point, Iran. Secretary of State Antony Blinken often talks about a renewed nuclear deal to “put Iran in the box.” Instead, the US appears to be getting a water-down agreement with the Iranians to pause its uranium enrichment program in exchange for sanctions relief. The “mini-agreement,” as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it, was negotiated informally in order to avoid further escalating US-Iranian tension. 

Last week, Iran agreed to release five American hostages in exchange for five Iranians imprisoned in the US, along with some $6 billion of Iranian assets in South Korea, blocked by sanctions. Understandably, this feels like a ransom payment – one that sets a very bad precedent. But the plan appears to have worked – on Aug. 11, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran was slowing down its uranium enrichment. Despite the rosy-sounding headlines, that slow-down is unlikely to stop Iran from ultimately getting the bomb. As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said, “arrangements that do not dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure do not stop its nuclear program.”

What it does is buy is quiet from the Islamic Republic on the nuclear front until November 2024.

Then there’s Saudi-Israel peace, a win-win in almost any format, though the Biden administration seems to be doing its utmost to add a bitter taste to the proceedings.  For one thing, Israel has been almost entirely shut out from the negotiations, even though they are the obvious central player.

Instead, the US is striking its own deal with Saudi Arabia aimed at lowering the cost of oil and keeping it priced in US dollars, rather than Chinese yuan. There is nothing wrong with that on its own; Americans deserve for their government to make energy more affordable while weakening China’s influence in the Middle East. 

But Riyadh’s favors don’t come cheap. The Saudis’ American shopping list includes a US-Saudi defense pact, expanded arms sales to the kingdom and — most worrisome — a civilian nuclear energy program. Why is it so concerning?  Considering Saudi Arabia’s massive oil reserves, folks in Jerusalem have good reason to fear any nuclear effort in Saudi Arabia would actually be military. 

This is substantively different from Israel-UAE normalization — which did not include guarantees of massive development or military aid. In fact, Soon after the Abraham Accords were announced, Abu Dhabi tried to buy F-35s from Washington, but the deal ultimately fell through. 

Then there are the Palestinians, which have become almost an afterthought in the Saudi-Israel negotiations — mostly because Israel is, too. The Saudis are demanding concrete steps towards Palestinian statehood  – Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) needs them so his father, King Salman, doesn’t block peace with Israel.  The Saudis are looking for something more dramatic than what the UAE got in 2020, which conditioned normalization on Israel freezing settlement annexation plans. Already embattled by months of domestic protests, Netanyahu will need to provide concessions that are large enough to placate Salman while modest enough to keep his right-wing government intact. This won’t be easy. 

While the US may be focused on its own benefits, Israel and Saudi Arabia clearly have much to gain from a successful peace agreement. There’s shared defense interests in their alarm over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, as well as the formalization of their long-standing behind the scenes security activities. The chance to work with Israel’s vaulted high-tech scene dovetails nicely with MBS’ Vision 2030 plan to diversify the kingdom’s economy and reduce its oil dependency. 

Both Israel and the Saudis know how transformational peace could be, so they will probably seize this opportunity for success, even if the US is selling it short.  Yet, while he is clearly focused on securing his own election cycle win, Biden’s nod to Israel feels more like a political marketing trick rather than genuine diplomacy.

From the Camp David Accords to the Abraham Accords, the US has always played a key role is Israeli-Arab peace processes. But the potential Saudi deal feels particularly self-serving.

Still, even with the White House gamesmanship, a Saudi-Israel deal remains far from certain — even though all sides win if the Abraham Accords are expanded. The administration can use it to convince Congress to approve Saudi defense commitments, MBS will lower oil prices and — who knows — Netanyau might even get claim victory on a trip to Riyadh.

Lahav Harkov is a senior contributing editor and diplomatic correspondent at The Jerusalem Post.