In every war, after the first bullet flies, the first question asked is “How does this end?” Anyone who confidently answers is either Nostradamus or nuts.

That said, here is what we do know about what might come next:

Fear-mongering to the contrary, it’s difficult to see this growing into a wider war. Too many rungs are missing on the escalation ladder.

Iran doesn’t have a lot to fight back with, and doing so on the ground is out of the question; there are too many countries in between. Iran’s Air Force is too old, small, and ill-prepared to mount an effective campaign. Tehran’s surrogates in Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria have all been battered.

Iran can lob missiles and drones, but so can Israel. Want to guess who will come off better in that exchange? It’s not Iran.

Don’t look for much from Moscow. Putin is bogged down in his Ukraine quagmire. Beijing sticks its neck out for no one. Iran’s Arab neighbors are not only unlikely to help, they’re probably quietly cheering (and some maybe not so quietly) any setbacks to Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Meanwhile, back at home, the regime’s leadership and infrastructure have been smacked around. We also know that most of Iran has had more than enough of the revolution and would be happy to see all mullahs take a long vacation.

Don’t expect the world to come to Iran’s rescue. Like every nation, Israel has the inherent right of self-defense. Iran has not only threatened to destroy Israel, it has played a heavy hand in attacks on it, from the Oct. 7 atrocities to attacks by the Houthis and Hezbollah.

To be clear, Israel’s action, like it or not, is not preventive or even preemptive war. The regime in Tehran has come after Israel, and Israel is defending itself.

In addition, the Israelis have already weathered a world’s worth of orchestrated criticism and worse, and they have been undeterred in defending their interests.

Riots, shooting and firebombing innocent Jews in the street, calumnies, Greta Thunberg’s armada — none of them have stopped Israel from defending Israelis. A few mean posts on social media won’t make much of a difference.

Don’t blame Donald Trump. President Trump is addicted to offering adversaries an off-ramp (unless you are a terrorist, then you just get whacked). The Iranians had their offer and kicked sand all over his negotiating table.

Sure, they could do a sudden about-face and plead for a deal, but that’s asking a lot from a regime that would do anything before bending a knee to the Great Satan.

At the same time, the Israelis are doing what Trump has been demanding from friends and allies. Collective defense means showing you have skin in the game, a willingness to defend yourself.

Trump is not a fan of starting wars or pushing regime change. If Tehran doesn’t want to make their world even worse, the last step they should consider is striking out against the United States.

No global entity that tried to deliberately kill and maim Americans while Donald Trump was the president of the United States ever achieved anything other than regretting that decision.

With Israel’s capacity to do more — to attack more accurately and more lethally — fighting a war of attrition does not look like a smart bet for Iran.

More likely, Tehran is focused on the politics of its response. It might fire off a bunch of stuff like the Fourth of July and call it day.

But who knows? Iran is down, not out. They may find other ways to try to strike back.

What we do know is that this is not the end — not until Iran changes its policies of aggression, or its government.

James Jay Carafano is Senior Advisor to the President and the E.W. Richardson Fellow at the Heritage Foundation.