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NY Post
New York Post
5 Jan 2024


NextImg:Why Eagles’ Jalen Carter is losing grasp as Defensive Rookie of the Year

From an overwhelming expectation at -1000 odds to a coin flip, Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter has lost his grasp on the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award.

Part of that is due to poor play by the Eagles in the second half, and the rest is thanks to the emergence of Texans’ defensive end Will Anderson Jr.

Drafted No. 3 overall, Anderson has moved from +400 to +125 on FanDuel just this week as bets have flown in.

“The stream of money that had been coming in on Carter has significantly slowed in the past few weeks,” a FanDuel Sportsbook trader told The Post. “Earlier this week, we saw an influx of bets on Kobie Turner, and in the past few days Will Anderson has been quite popular among bettors.”

This number and ensuing wagers that flooded the market is despite the fact that Anderson will play in just 15 games, while Carter will play in 16.

“At the end of the season, voters may start to share who they are picking for awards. This can cause line movement and the trading team will be monitoring news,” BetMGM Senior Manager of Trading Tristan Davis told The Post.

At first thought, there haven’t been any voters that gave out their vote on Anderson, but it’s interesting to know that traders are outwardly listening to everything voters say.

Will Anderson Jr. has a big chance to make a statement in Week 18. Getty Images

Caesars Sportsbooks Assistant Director of Trading Adam Pullen added some more clarity on the award and how important Week 18 is for the award.

“Right now, Jalen Carter is a -120 favorite, with Will Anderson at +165 in this two-man race for DROY. Anderson has slightly better numbers, but has played fewer games than Carter. The Eagles’ defense has struggled in recent games, which could tilt things in Anderson’s direction.”

But even with that game missing, Anderson has substantially better counting stats.

“It looks like this race will come down to Week 18 and whoever plays better in the final week of the regular season. As always, people remember what they saw last. Anderson will have the first crack at impressing voters in Saturday night’s primetime, win-or-go-home game against the Colts. As for Caesars Sportsbook, Jalen Carter winning the award is less of a liability than Anderson. Carter will look to help the Eagles get back on track against the Giants on Sunday.”

Below is a full accounting of the Anderson vs. Carter debate coming into Week 18 with some credits due to Pro Football Focus.

Will Anderson Jr.Jalen Carter
Tackles4430
Sacks77
Hurries3633
Hits144
Total pressures5744
Jalen Carter grades via Pro Football Focus.
Will Anderson Jr. grades via Pro Football Focus.

The Eagles’ run defense has been roasted for the sixth-worst yards per carry allowed in the NFL, and in the past four weeks Philadelphia has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game.

They’ve also lost four of their last five games.

Meanwhile, the top five players in pass rush win rate, according to ESPNs Seth Walder are as follows.

  1. Micah Parsons
  2. Myles Garrett
  3. Will Anderson Jr.
  4. TJ Watt
  5. Jadeveon Clowney

It sure seems like smart money is coming in on the Texans rookie, who has peaked at the right time.