The Super Bowl MVP generally goes to the quarterback from the winning team. 

However, we have a unique situation in Super Bowl 2024. 

Patrick Mahomes is going for his third Super Bowl in five years.

In years past, quarterbacks have been susceptible to some voter fatigue. 

Specifically, Tom Brady lost Super Bowl MVP in Super Bowl 39 – New England’s third in four years – and Super Bowl 53 – New England’s third in five years – to his top wide receiver.

Julian Edelman earned honors in LIII, while Deion Branch picked up the award in XXXIX. 

With that in mind, here’s a wide receiver I’m betting on to win Super Bowl 2024 MVP. 

(Via FanDuel)

Kansas City’s wideout room was poverty this season. 

The Chiefs led the league in drops (44), with Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling single-handedly costing Mahomes a few wins. 

The most talked about Chiefs wide receiver debacle was this offsides call on Toney.

But don’t forget this brutal Valdes-Scantling drop against the Eagles.

Or Toney’s four-drop performance against the Lions.

Compound the wide receiver woes with Travis Kelce’s down season – although he’s rebounded in the playoffs – and Mahomes was constantly hamstrung by the NFL’s worst weapons room.

However, the Chiefs have found something in rookie Rashee Rice. 

After a slow start, Rice exploded in the second half. Since Thanksgiving, Rice has snagged 43 receptions (seven per game) on 56 targets (nine per game) for more than 500 yards on a 77% catch rate. He’s recorded four 90-plus-yard games during the stretch. 

He’s erupted as an explosive (2.4 yards per route run), sure-handed receiver who is highly productive in the middle of the field. He’s single-handedly saved Mahomes’ wideout room. 

Kelce is still Mahomes’ top option, but I’d imagine San Francisco keys in on him in the Super Bowl. 

Moreover, the 49ers rank fourth among NFL defenses in DVOA allowed to tight ends – I could envision a tough day for the Hall of Fame tight end. 

Therefore, I could see Mahomes locking in on Rice in the Super Bowl, leading to a potentially monster day.

And if the voters are tired of giving Super Bowl MVP to Mahomes, Rice is next up on the list of potential WR winners. 

The key to this handicap might be how Andy Reid attacks the 49ers’ secondary. Reid and the Chiefs must scheme Rice away from cornerback Charvarius Ward, who allows only a 55% catch rate. 

But if Rice gets matched up with Ambry Thomas or Deommodore Lenoir, who both allow more than 70% catch rates, Mahomes could feed him consistently and successfully all night.

I’m betting that happens, and Rice makes the most of it in a potential double-digit catch, 100-yard MVP performance – granted the Chiefs win. 

The other Kansas City voter fatigue option is Pacheco, who is in line for a potentially big day. 

The 49ers defensive line gets plenty of love, especially because it’s the highest-paid unit on the team and has been dominant for years behind Nick Bosa. 

However, San Francisco’s front seven has been a weakness this season.

Specifically, the 49ers’ rush defense has fallen off a cliff, finishing bottom-seven in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed. They were closer to the league average by Rush Defense DVOA, but the whole picture isn’t pretty. 

Just this playoff run, the Niners allowed 136 rush yards to Green Bay and 182 plus three scores to Detroit, a total of 318 yards at 5.6 yards per carry. 

Now, we turn to Pacheco, who ran like a bat out of hell for more than 900 yards and seven scores in the regular season, only to pick up 97 rushing yards against Buffalo, 68 against Baltimore and 89 against Miami in three playoff appearances.

Despite having an offensive line that finished 19th in Line Yards, Pacheco averaged almost 4.5 yards per attempt, mainly by generating more than 800 yards after contact – the latter is the fifth-most among qualified NFL running backs this year. 

In the Super Bowl, Pacheco should see the majority of the carries, the offensive line could get a push against a soft front and he could rush for 150 yards and a few scores if Reid decides to dice up San Francisco on the ground with a rush-heavy game script. 

A few years ago, I thought running back Damien Williams should’ve been the MVP of Super Bowl 54 when he picked up 104 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. 

Although he added 30 yards and a score through the air, I think Pacheco can do something similar, and he might get the votes this time now that Mahomes already has his two Pete Rozelle’s. 

At 25/1, I’ll take a shot with the second-year running back. 

I might as well give a pick in case the 49ers – the actual favorites – win. 

There’s a high chance that Brock Purdy or Christian McCaffery will win the MVP award if the Niners pull it off. 

However, at +210 and +540, respectively, I can’t get behind those odds. 

So, I’ll throw two darts on two linebackers. 

There is a world where the uber-young Purdy and his 49ers can’t get off the ground in the Super Bowl – perhaps if Shanahan’s scripted plays don’t work early, McCaffrey can’t generate big rushing plays and any adjustments don’t help against a Chiefs’ defense playing at an elite level.

But, there is a world within that world where San Francisco’s highly talented, if underperforming, defense steps up and puts together a dominant performance behind an excellent game plan from coordinator Steve Wilks in a low-scoring, low-box-score-value victory. 

In that scenario, I’d imagine that one of the 49ers’ defensive quarterbacks — the linebackers — earn MVP honors for leading a defensive masterclass. 

The apparent pick amongst the linebacker core is Fred Warner, the top-rated NFL linebacker by Pro Football Focus. He was a solid pass rusher but was even better against the run and in coverage. He racked up 132 tackles, six tackles for loss, defended 11 passes and snagged four interceptions. 

Imagine if he picks up a sack or two and holds his own against Kelce in coverage. That is a compelling argument in the above-mentioned game script. 

A similar argument can be made for Dre Greenlaw, who amassed 120 tackles this year. He wasn’t as productive as Warner in any area, but he’s the other clear pick as the second linebacker “quarterbacking” of the defense. 

For what it’s worth, here’s 49ers linebackers coach Johnny Holland talking about the importance of Greenlaw and Warner in their scheme.

I love Holland’s focus on the linebackers’ versatility and ability to play all-around sideline-to-sideline. If one is to put together a Super Bowl MVP performance, they’ll have to excel in every phase, especially coverage on Kelce, tackling on Pacheco and pressure on Mahomes. 

It feels like these two are the most essential players on the 49ers defense, and one of them likely takes home the award if – by some miracle – the game turns into Super Bowl 50, where Denver linebacker Von Miller won the award behind six tackles, 2.5 sacks, three quarterback hits and a pass defended in an ugly, 24-10 game. 

Again, this is all highly unlikely, but it’s worth a couch-change dart throw at 14/1 and 500/1 odds, respectively.