Once upon a time, the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers were not fixtures in the NFL playoffs.
Sure, it seems now like those four teams — with postseason streaks of nine, five, four and three years, respectively — start every season with a playoff berth clinched, but all great runs start somewhere.
The Chiefs made the playoffs just twice between 2007 and 2014, the Bills ended a 17-year playoff absence in 2017, the Buccaneers still are the losingest franchise in NFL history (.406 winning percentage) and the 49ers have had separate playoff droughts of five and eight years during this century alone.
Six teams — the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers — made the playoffs this season after missing out last season. It marks the 34th straight season — every year since the NFL expanded to a 12-team format in 1990 — with at least four playoff newcomers.
So, which of those six has the most staying power? Which is most likely to be a one-year wonder? Let’s analyze and rank:
1. Texans: It’s not unusual for a team to get a bump from a first-year head coach like the Texans experienced with DeMeco Ryans. From 2008-21, 28.4 percent of first-year head coaches made the playoffs in Year 1, according to The 33rd Team. Sustaining it is harder: Only two of the record five first-year head coaches in last season’s playoffs are back again.
But the Texans actually are ahead of schedule, thanks to likely Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud’s ascension into the top echelon of quarterbacks. Not to mention what could be a decade of dominant defense led by back-to-back No. 3 overall draft picks Derek Stingley Jr. and Will Anderson Jr..
The AFC South historically is the weakest of the eight divisions (.478 winning percentage since 2002). And the Texans have the fourth-most salary-cap space ($74.8 million) to bolster the roster entering the offseason, according to according to Spotrac.
2. Packers: The NFL’s youngest roster is heading to the playoffs in Year 1 A.A.R. (After Aaron Rodgers). Suddenly, Matt LaFleur — the first NFL head coach to win at least 13 games in each of his first three seasons (2019-21) — no longer looks like a product of Rodgers’ greatness.
The biggest reason is the Packers seem to have found their next franchise quarterback in Jordan Love, who seized his one-year opportunity after three seasons on the bench by registering 10 games with multiple touchdown passes, zero interceptions and a passer rating of at least 100.
“They had the vision to go, ‘We have a quarterback who’s young and might be a year or two older than the rest of the team, but that’s a good thing,’” NBC Sports NFL analyst Chris Simms said. “Now the nucleus of young guys can all grow together under the leadership of Jordan Love.”
3. Lions: Part of the problem for the Lions — as it has been for the last 30 years — is sharing a division with the Packers.
General manager Brad Holmes has had a magic touch in his first three drafts, selecting four Pro Bowlers — tight end Sam LaPorta, defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, offensive tackle Penei Sewell and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown — as well as a handful of other significant contributors such as running back Jahmyr Gibbs, nose tackle Alim McNeil, receiver Jameson Williams and linebacker James Houston with an upward trajectory.
Dan Campbell’s fiery temperament made him the right coach for a job that was seen as a dead end for too long. Will it be the right attitude for the locker room when the Lions no longer are cast as underdogs?
Will Holmes be willing to give middle-tier quarterback Jared Goff, 29, the second huge extension of his career after next season? Upgrading is a path to Super Bowl contention, but the risk of downgrading is great.
4. Rams: How quickly everyone forgot that, after a second Super Bowl appearance before his 37th birthday, head coach Sean McVay was talked about as a wunderkind whose only obstacle to joining the all-time coaching greats was burnout. The Rams went 8-18 over a 26-game stretch, but surged back to life in the second half of this season, winning seven of their final eight games.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford, 35, is nearing the end, but just made his first Pro Bowl since 2014. The “F them picks” draft strategy might need tweaking when it’s time to replace Stafford, but general manager Les Snead’s ability to find gems such as running back Kyren Williams, receiver Puka Nacua and defensive tackle Kobie Turner in the mid-to-late rounds is a huge asset to cheap roster-building.
5. Browns: Finding the right head coach is so much of the battle for a downtrodden franchise. Well, Kevin Stefanski is the favorite to win his second NFL Coach of the Year award in four years after starting five different quarterbacks during an 11-win season.
The Browns led the NFL in total defense and passing defense and have a great setup because coordinator Jim Schwartz, 57, probably is past his window for a second head coaching job (29-51 with 2009-13 Lions). So, one of the NFL’s top offensive minds and top defensive schemers can stay together for as long as they like.
The question here is quarterback. Assuming straight-off-the-couch fill-in Joe Flacco, 38, hasn’t discovered the Fountain of Youth, Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed $230 million contract through 2026 is going to mean he is back starting when healthy — and he hasn’t consistently performed like even an above-average NFL starter since 2020.
6. Steelers: There are just so many questions. Like the Browns, the Steelers start from having no better than the third-best quarterback situation in the AFC North for probably the next decade because of Lamar Jackson’s Ravens and Joe Burrow’s Bengals.
Is head coach Mike Tomlin long for the job (more on that later) or about to take his 173-100 record somewhere else? If not, the Steelers, who have had three head coaches since 1969, are due for a bad hire, no?
Is the Kenny Pickett quarterback era over after just two seasons for the former first-round pick? Will second-year general manager Omar Kahn be able to draft well enough to keep up with the heavy hitters like predecessor Kevin Colbert was able to over 23 seasons when the Steelers typically sit out splashy free-agent signings?
What were you doing 17 years ago?
Tomlin was a new hire just about to begin the first of what is now 17 consecutive non-losing seasons — a streak only topped by Bill Belichick (19) and Tom Landry (21) during their legendary careers.
Eagles center Jason Kelce was a freshman in college, and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce was a high schooler who had “just gotten my driver’s license suspended by the state of Ohio.” The two brothers and future Hall of Famers started the “What were you doing 17 years ago?” question on their “New Heights” podcast in response to Tomlin extending his streak with the Steelers.
It seems that nothing — not Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement after the 2021 season, not long-term injuries to star T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick over the past two seasons, and not playing in the first division since 1935 in which all teams finished with a winning record in 2023 — can stop the Tomlin train from rolling.
So, he should have a lifetime contract, right? Well, not so fast.
The talk-radio airwaves in Pittsburgh are filled with frustrated Steelers fans who want a change because they seek more playoff victories than the Super Bowl-winning Tomlin has delivered of late (0-3 since 2017).
An ESPN report this week indicated that Tomlin could “maybe take a year off” — the same length left on his contract — like Sean Payton did to recharge his batteries between coaching the Saints and Broncos. A Fox Sports report said “it will be his choice” if Tomlin goes back to the Steelers next season.
If Tomlin were to step down and look for a clean slate, which franchises theoretically could have a vacancy? Someone started singing “New York, New York.”
No one’s seat will be hotter next season than Robert Saleh’s with the Jets after he was granted a mulligan following a third straight losing (and offensively miserable) season so that he could try again as intended in 2023 with a healthy Aaron Rodgers.
The Jets have been reluctant to hire the big-name head coach under owner Woody Johnson, and the main selling point for any head coach candidate would be the four-time MVP Rodgers, who, if he is playing at that level again might keep the job from opening, anyway.
Which brings us to the Giants, where head coach Brian Daboll’s encore to his 2022 NFL Head Coach of the Year debut was a disappointing 6-11 record. To make matters uglier, Daboll became embroiled in an unsavory standoff with defensive coordinator Wink Martindale that made all parties look bad.
After firing three straight head coaches in two seasons or less on the heels of the Tom Coughlin Era, the Giants are giving Daboll a third season. But a second consecutive stinker next season could try ownership’s patience, especially if a no-brainer alternative is on the open market.
Like the Steelers, the Giants are rich in tradition. Like the Steelers, the Giants have been owned and operated by the same family since their inception more than 90 years ago. In fact, the Mara and Rooney families are even intertwined by marriage and grandchildren.
So, Tomlin could find a lot of what he likes about The Steelers Way in East Rutherford.
From a Giants perspective, Tomlin’s on-field résumé could be seen as a way to end a 12-year run with just two playoff berths. He also would be the first Black head coach in franchise history, not long after the Giants were sued by Brian Flores — the runner-up in the search that led to Daboll — for discrimination.
Or maybe the Steelers are about to go on a deep playoff run and nothing changes at all.
If the aforementioned trend of at least four non-playoff teams joining the field from one year to the next is going to continue for a 35th straight season, which teams are finished playing now, but won’t be at this time next year? Some are easier to guess than others.
The sure thing: Bengals
Great quarterbacks generally don’t miss the playoffs if they play a full (or most of a full) season. It happened to Tom Brady once, Peyton Manning twice, Rodgers thrice — and not yet to Patrick Mahomes.
The Bengals finished one game out of a playoff spot despite Joe Burrow getting off to a rough start because of a calf injury and missing the final seven games of the season due to a wrist injury. If he’s healthy next year, slide the Bengals back into the AFC’s top seven, especially if they retain receiver Tee Higgins.
The boom or bust: Jets
The Jets’ plan to act like 2023 never happened and restart hype engines around the possibilities with Aaron Rodgers and all his friends — such as offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett — sounds like an episode of “The Twilight Zone.”
Again, great quarterbacks don’t usually miss the playoffs, though Rodgers did during his final season with the Packers. And there is no telling how he will play at age 40 or off of a torn Achilles — let alone both factors at the same time.
But what else were the Jets supposed to do? Try their time-tested bad luck with another fresh start?
The momentum builder: Bears
In 2023, the Lions won their first division title since 1993. But the road to making it happen really began in 2022, with an 8-2 post-Halloween record.
The Bears fit that bill heading into this season after going 5-3 over the last eight games, looking like a completely different defense after trading for and re-signing pass rusher Montez Sweat. They have the No. 1 pick in the draft, which they could use to draft receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. to pair with quarterback Justin Fields, to draft quarterback Caleb Williams and trade Fields, or to trade for a boatload of other picks.
Either way, that’s a lot of assets to get good fast.
The coach makes a difference: Bill Belichick’s next team
Belichick and the Patriots parted ways Thursday, freeing him from a destiny of another last-place finish in the AFC East.
Put him with the loaded Chargers roster…or with the No. 2 pick in the draft (a quarterback like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye) and new owner Josh Harris’ commitment to restoring the Commanders…or with the Falcons in the first-to-nine-wins NFC South…and voila! Instant playoff contender.
If the Chargers are willing to pay up and give Belichick the control he desires, they are the most dangerous landing spot because of the talent on the roster and having rising star quarterback Justin Herbert signed until 2029. Belichick went 29-38 after Brady left the Patriots, so he might be tired of searching for a great quarterback
In January 1980, Ohio State needed a defensive backs coach to replace Pete Carroll, who left after the Rose Bowl to become North Carolina State’s defensive coordinator. Nick Saban was hired to fill the position.
Forty-four years later, Carroll and Saban, both 72 and titans among football head coaches, stepped down on the same day from their longtime posts. Hours after Carroll seemingly was forced out by the Seahawks, Saban retired from Alabama.
Hours later, 71-year-old Belichick — who hired Saban as his defensive coordinator when he was head coach of the Browns and later succeeded Carroll as head coach of the Patriots — also exited after a 24-year tenure in New England and managed to overshadow the other two announcements.
Let’s focus here on Carroll and Saban, not Belichick, whose 302 career wins in the NFL rank third all-time.
Saban totaled 312 wins as a head coach between the NFL (15) and college (297). Carroll notched 267 between the NFL (170) and college (97). Coincidentally, Carroll is No. 15 all-time on the NFL wins list and Saban is No. 15 on the NCAA list (No. 5 exclusive to FBS schools).
“In many ways they are total opposites to the approach on the surface,” former NFL general manager and current Jets senior football advisor Phil Savage told AL.com in 2016, “because of personality probably more than anything.”
It won’t be easy to replace either of them. But here’s guessing that Saban’s successor has the more difficult time upholding his standards.
For starters, Saban won six national titles and actually produced more first-round draft picks (44) than he had losses (29) since 2007.
Carroll is one of only three coaches to win a FBS national championship (at USC) and the Super Bowl (the Seahawks made back-to-back appearances in 2013-14).
Carroll took over the Seahawks when they were one year removed from the successful 10-year run of Mike Holmgren (86-74 with a Super Bowl appearance). Saban took over Alabama when it was 67-54 over the previous 14 seasons and never lost more than three games in a season after Year 1.
In college, following a legend rarely works. Does anyone remember the successors to Joe Paterno (Penn State), Bear Bryant (Alabama), Mack Brown (Texas), Tom Osborne (Nebraska), Frank Beamer (Virginia Tech), Bo Schembechler (Michigan) and so many others?
The answers are Bill O’Brien, Ray Perkins, Charlie Strong, Frank Solich, Justin Fuente and Gary Moeller, respectively.
In the NFL, organizational structure can promote the kind of sustained success of Chuck Noll-Bill Cowher-Mike Tomlin (Steelers), Tom Landry-Jimmy Johnson-Barry Switzer (Cowboys), Andy Reid-Chip Kelly-Doug Pederson-Nick Sirianni (Eagles) or Bill Walsh-George Seifert-Steve Mariucci (49ers).
Add in the ever-growing challenges of NIL and the transfer portal and Alabama might not be Alabama for a while, no matter who comes next.