On the ice from Long Island
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Thanksgiving represents the first true benchmark of the season in the NHL, and if the Islanders are looking inward, they may not like what they see.
They finally halted a seven-game losing streak in Saturday night in Calgary, and after beating the Flyers 3-2 at home on Wednesday, the Islanders are two points out of the last wild-card spot in the East.
Traditionally, being out of a playoff spot at Thanksgiving means your chances of making it are, roughly, 25 percent.
For the moment, it looks as if Lou Lamoriello is avoiding the nuclear option of firing coach Lane Lambert.
Though noise about the head coach’s job status ramped up massively while the team was in Western Canada, he survived the trip, which likely means Lamoriello is buying into both the dressing-room backing of Lambert and the coach’s insistence that his team is playing well at five-on-five despite its recent struggles.
It is probably true that the Islanders did not play so poorly as to deserve losing seven games in a row, but it is also true that going into Wednesday, they had been outscored this season at five-on-five. It is also the case that setting aside special teams in assessing a hockey team is like setting aside how well a baseball player can hit a curveball — and the Islanders are second-to-last in the league on the penalty kill.
So maybe the Islanders (7-6-5) have been hard done by once or twice, but as an overall picture, their record is a pretty fair assessment of where this team stands.
And it is hard to believe they will make the playoffs playing like this.
Giving up on the season so early, though, is not an option.
For the Islanders, giving up on the season at any point might not be an option given how the franchise has operated under Lamoriello.
And they do have the relatively good fortune to be within spitting distance of a wild-card spot thanks to the Metropolitan Division as a whole having disappointed this season.
So here’s how they can make it happen:
It’s not rocket science — the best way the Islanders can get better is to stop giving up power-play goals.
That also, in theory, might be the easiest way for them to get better. This group has traditionally been strong on the penalty kill. Their four-on-five numbers last season helped make up for an abysmal power play of their own. Lately, the power play has gotten going, but the penalty kill has been so bad as to wipe out gains.
Lambert mentioned Wednesday morning that the Islanders have made some tweaks to their scheme. There’s really no shortage of areas for them to work on. They haven’t been clearing the puck when they’ve had chances, they’ve fallen asleep on the weak side and their faceoff percentage is worse on the PK than any other strength.
There is also the issue of goaltending. It’s hard to judge because the Islanders are giving up more and better chances, but Ilya Sorokin had negative-4.38 goals saved above expected while shorthanded entering Wednesday, per Evolving Hockey. Last season, that number was plus-14.58.
To be clear, Sorokin has not at all been bad this season. He does not deserve blame for the team’s start anywhere near as much as the skaters in front of him, who have often played — especially with leads — as though they are hoping Sorokin can just win the game on his own.
Still, the penalty kill is not the only area where Sorokin’s numbers are down. His save percentage, .924 last season, was at .906 entering Wednesday. His goals saved above expected at all strengths was 1.54.
Those numbers are perfectly fine. But Sorokin was so good last season that he compensated for a roster that was lacking. That is not currently happening.
It may not be especially fair to say Sorokin needs to be better when he is not the reason the Islanders are losing games. And two percent, here, is the difference between perfectly fine and great.
But the Islanders built their roster on the assumption that they had an all-world goaltender. So when they get anything less, it will be reflected in their record.
Anders Lee, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Oliver Wahlstrom — who are currently making up the third line — had three goals between them this season entering Wednesday.
That might be OK if they were shutting down the opposition. But in 39:10 of ice time prior to Wednesday, the trio had been outshot 28-8 and held a 22.69 expected goals percentage, per Natural Stat Trick.
This is a delicate thing for Lambert to navigate for two reasons. The first is that all three other forward lines are playing well and shouldn’t be broken up. The second is that Lee simply hasn’t looked like the same player, and that is a hard thing to confront.
Lee’s recent uptick in play — two goals in three games after he scored on Wednesday — is also coming in the nick of time for the Islanders to avoid what would be an extremely hard choice.
The third line also showed some potential Wednesday with its best game of the season against the Flyers. But if that doesn’t continue, there are some decisions in front of Lambert.
Once Matt Martin is healthy, Lambert will already need to figure out what to do with his fourth line, which has looked pretty good with Hudson Fasching in place of Martin. But the traditional Identity Line has played well this season.
It’s not entirely clear what the best bottom-six configuration is, but it may be time to start experimenting with looks that might not make the captain particularly thrilled, if his form reverts back to how played earlier in the season.
Lee-Pageau-Fasching as the third line with Martin-Casey Cizikas-Cal Clutterbuck as the fourth is probably the easiest thing for Lambert to try first and might end up working fine — the former trio has decent numbers in their time together this season.
As much criticism as some of the long-term extensions Lamoriello signed this summer received, letting Parker Wotherspoon go to the Bruins has quietly proved a major unforced error.
It’s clear Samuel Bolduc isn’t as ready as the Islanders thought he was, and when he’s been in the lineup, Lambert has needed to walk a tightrope between avoiding putting him in any situations he can’t handle and making sure he isn’t asking too much of the other five defenders.
Wotherspoon, though, would not have solved the organization’s other overriding issue here, which is a complete lack of right-handed defense depth.
It is outwardly confusing why the Islanders did not make more of a try for Calen Addison, who was dealt from Minnesota to San Jose for a 2026 fifth-round pick and Adam Raska, an AHL winger who was picked in the 2020 seventh round.
They should be making calls on Ethan Bear when the former Canuck is cleared from his shoulder injury and is ready to sign with a team.
It’s also worth calling the Flames to inquire about their trio of defensemen on expiring deals who are expected to be on the trade market — Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov.
The pipe dream here would be Patrick Kane.
But there are a series of obstacles there, including, but not limited to: the salary cap; that the Islanders are not a bona fide Cup contender; that Kane’s effectiveness coming off hip-resurfacing surgery is not guaranteed; Kane’s inability to make it work in New York last season; and the series of other teams that are making a go of signing No. 88 who have more to offer.
Still, if you are Lamoriello, it is more than worth the call to Kane’s agent, Pat Brisson.
Zach Parise, whose camp has stayed quiet since he began skating last month, would seem a more realistic option. But would a 39-year-old Parise coming into the season cold really do much other than contribute to an already complicated logjam in the Islanders’ bottom six?
And would Parise be interested in leaving his family for a team that might not make the playoffs?
Lamoriello pulled a rabbit out of a hat last year by getting Bo Horvat a full month before the trade deadline for a price that, at least right now, looks favorable to the Islanders.
It’s too early to say whether a similar opportunity will present itself this season (or for that matter, whether ownership would green-light a fifth consecutive draft without a first-round pick), but the Islanders need to be ready to pounce if so.
1️⃣ This was one of those nights when a shot count of 36 for the Flyers didn’t really reflect how well the Islanders played defensively. A lot of those looks were from the outside or low-danger. This felt like one of the better games the Islanders have played in front of Sorokin all season. Maybe that says more about the other games than it does this one, but that is not my inclination.
2️⃣ The Islanders hit basically every one of the above on-ice suggestions on the head Wednesday. The third line played an excellent 9:10 with an 8-1 shot margin. The Islanders took just one penalty and easily killed it off. Sorokin looked comfortable and was making the big-time saves he needed to make.
Robert Sabo for the NY Post
3️⃣ How to split the Friday-Saturday, Senators-Flyers back-to-back between Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov is an interesting call for Lambert. Traditionally, Sorokin has gotten the first end of back-to-backs. But the Flyers game is objectively more important, being a divisional match on home ice, and Sorokin just played a strong game against Philadelphia. It would be surprising for Lambert to deviate from the norm, but this is a spot where he should consider doing so.
4️⃣ It is an extremely tired trope — and probably no longer even a correct one — to call Brock Nelson underrated. So without saying that, we are noting that after Wednesday, Nelson is top 15 in the league with 10 goals, equal with Artemi Panarin, Connor Bedard and Brady Tkachuk, among others.
5️⃣ The Islanders leapfrogged the Devils and Penguins in the standings with Wednesday’s win, which says a lot about the state of the season in New Jersey and Pittsburgh — none of it good.