


On the ice from Long Island
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With just a couple weeks to go until the Isles hit the ice for training camp, 24 thoughts for the 24 players with the best chance of making the Opening Night roster:
Anders Lee: Going by the eye test, Lee did not appear to be the same kind of force around the net last season as in the past, but the advanced numbers would contest that claim — he had a career high in individual expected goals and scored 28 for the second straight season. The Islanders need more from him on the power play, though, as he scored just six times at five-on-four last season.
Bo Horvat: Lou Lamoriello bought high on Horvat, whose shooting percentage with Vancouver last season was a career-high 21.7 percent, then dropped to 8.1 percent with the Isles, and he admitted he needed to be doing more. Horvat’s track record says we should expect a rate somewhere between the two — around 14 or 15 percent. That would count as a success for the Islanders.
Mathew Barzal: We got just seven games of Barzal playing next to Horvat during the regular season before Barzal went down with a knee injury. A lot of this season’s ceiling will be dictated by the longer-term results of that partnership and whether Barzal sticks as a winger.
Pierre Engvall: Engvall has long-term security and is in line for top-six minutes that eluded him over three and a half seasons with the Maple Leafs. A seven-year deal for a player who has never averaged over 13:38 per game is inherently risky, but the Islanders love his combination of size and speed.
Brock Nelson: At the start of the offseason, I wondered whether the Islanders would consider selling high on Nelson, who turns 32 in mid-October, after he put together his best two seasons in a row. The answer was an emphatic no, and Nelson probably will continue to be a highly underappreciated scorer for the Isles.
Kyle Palmieri: In his first full season with the Islanders, Palmieri stayed mostly healthy, but didn’t produce until the second half. In his second full season with the Islanders, Palmieri produced at the expected level, but played just 55 games. Combining the two would be a good place to start in Year 3.
Oliver Wahlstrom: One of the most fascinating players coming into camp, Wahlstrom’s future with the Islanders feels as if it could go in any direction. The former first-round talent is coming off a serious knee injury, does not have a clear place in the lineup and signed just a one-year deal as a restricted free agent. But the big shot and 30-goal potential is still there, and the physicality that became a feature of Wahlstrom’s game last season was a strong addition.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau: Pageau almost undoubtedly will be thrown around in every trade rumor this season as he seems like the odd man out among the Islanders’ abundance of centers. That said, there is no reason to trade him for the sake of doing so; Pageau has been a healthy, dependable two-way player for the entirety of his time here and there’s no expectation of that changing now.
Hudson Fasching: Fasching’s emergence was a revelation. Now he has to stick. But if the logjam in the bottom-six makes it clear that Fasching’s best spot is on the fourth line, it will create issues for the Identity Line’s continuity.
Matt Martin: At 34, Martin is in the last year of his contract. He had a strong season in 2022-23, and crucially stayed healthy, but the questions about what happens next summer are coming. The Identity Line will probably stay intact for most of this season, though it’s fair to wonder whether the Isles will start to transition away from the trio at some point.
Cal Clutterbuck: At 35, Clutterbuck is in pretty much the same situation as Martin, only he’s dealt with more injuries over the past couple of years. The Islanders still see value in what both of them do, and Clutterbuck is an excellent penalty killer, but it’s a question mark whether he can stay healthy.
Casey Cizikas: What you see is what you get with Cizikas. He’s going to grind, kill penalties, throw hits and wear teams down. And he’s probably going to do it pretty well.
Simon Holmstrom: Much as the Islanders talked up Holmstrom’s awareness and two-way contributions last season, it’s tough to imagine he would have stayed in the lineup for 50 games had the team been healthy. Bottom line: He needs to contribute more on the offensive end if he’s going to stick.
Julien Gauthier: It looks as if Gauthier will be the only player on the opening night roster who wasn’t with the organization last year. Whether he can carve out a role for himself with the Islanders after failing to do so with the Rangers and Senators is another question.
Ross Johnston: If any rostered player from last season has a target on his back going into this year’s camp, it’s Johnston. After getting into just 16 games, making little impact and seeing multiple AHL call-ups play over him, the 29-year-old needs to prove he can do more than be the team’s designated fighter to earn a roster spot.
Adam Pelech: According to HockeyViz, the Islanders gave up .37 fewer expected goals against per 60 minutes with Pelech on the ice, which is the sort of stat that’s complicated enough to easily overlook. Until, that is, you watched them when Pelech was out between early December and late January — which was not so coincidentally one of their worst stretches of the season.
Ryan Pulock: Playing only 43 games alongside Pelech — partly due to the latter’s injury and partly due to Lane Lambert splitting them up for stretches — was a necessary evil, but probably hurt Pulock. The more the Isles can keep those two together as their top pair, the better.
Alexander Romanov: Throughout training camp, Romanov’s health following offseason shoulder surgery will be an early question mark, though he is expected to be fine. The early returns on the 23-year-old were positive, but seeing him gel with Noah Dobson is an important next step.
Noah Dobson: Lamoriello has been rightly defensive of Dobson’s 2022-23 campaign publicly, and if a season in which his development stagnated is merely a bump in the road, that is ultimately fine. But recovering his 2021-22 mojo on the power play and earning top-four minutes are musts for Dobson.
Sebastian Aho: With Samuel Bolduc signing a one-way deal in the offseason, Aho’s spot in the lineup looks at risk coming into camp. But he is unlikely to give up so easily after a career-best 2022-23 season in which he was an everyday player for the first time.
Scott Mayfield: It was fair to wonder whether the Islanders would go for a more offense-oriented defenseman than Mayfield this offseason. Instead, they signed him to a seven-year deal that would keep him on Long Island until age 37. Needless to say, the priority there is on the short term. Mayfield can be either a high-end third-pair defenseman or play in the top-four if necessary.
Samuel Bolduc: Aho gives the Islanders the luxury of not needing to rush Bolduc into an everyday role before he’s ready, and it figures that this will be a growing season for the 22-year-old. Dobson’s development arc — playing 34 games in 2019-20 and 46 in a shortened 2020-21 campaign before stepping into a full-time role with bigger responsibilities the next season — feels like a rough blueprint for Bolduc, who got his first NHL action late last season.
Ilya Sorokin: In a perfect world, the Islanders won’t need to depend on Sorokin as much as they did down the stretch last season, when he was playing basically every game, even the occasional back-to-back. But their hopes for making any noise are largely dependent on the Russian netminder, who should be one of the Vezina Trophy favorites.
Semyon Varlamov: Credit Varlamov for being willing to stick with a backup role in which he garnered just 22 starts last season. Lamoriello believes that teams should be built from the back end out, and the Isles might have the best 1-2 goalie tandem in the league with these two.
• Zach Parise has yet to make an announcement on his future, which mirrors Zdeno Chara’s handling of an eventual retirement announcement last season, when he signed a one-day contract with the Bruins on Sept. 20. That is not to say we are making assumptions either way on Parise, only that — this late on — it is probably easier for the Islanders to plan for him retiring and be pleasantly surprised if he does return, as opposed to the opposite.
• Karson Kuhlman and Brian Pinho signed two-way deals during the offseason and have NHL experience, so they will be aiming for roster spots. But the Islanders have 23 players on one-way deals, plus Holmstrom, so the math is against those two.
• Prospects Arnaud Durandeau, William Dufour, Ruslan Iskhakov and Matthew Maggio will be worth watching at training camp and could play NHL games this season. But they are unlikely to make the roster for opening night without a standout camp, should everyone remain healthy. Of that group, Durandeau probably has the best shot coming in given his solid four-game stint last season.
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With Cory Schneider gone, the No. 3 goalie spot in the organization is open going into camp.
After 2021 third-round pick Tristan Lennox signed his entry-level deal and Jakub Skarek returned as a restricted free agent over the summer, they figure to be the two competing for the job.
Last season, Lennox had an .888 save percentage with the OHL’s Saginaw Spirit and Skarek had an .892 mark in Bridgeport — neither one particularly inspiring.
Any time the Islanders called up Schneider, they generally avoided using him — he played just one game for them in two seasons, and that was with the team out of the playoff hunt late in the 2021-22 season.
That system has generally worked fine given Sorokin’s capacity for taking on a stringent workload when Varlamov has been hurt.
But it would not hurt the Islanders if either Lennox or Skarek proved trustworthy in the sort of situation — i.e., the second end of a back-to-back — that usually calls for the No. 1 to sit.