Bettors entered uncharted territory in the 2024 College Football Season.
Not only were we still putting the NIL and transfer portal puzzles together, but we also had to sort through realignment with the SEC and Big 10 turning into super conferences.
That isn’t all. Punters also needed to try and figure out how the expanded College Football Playoff would impact the sport in both a big-picture sense and on a game-by-game basis.
As we enter Year 2 of college football’s new era, savvy bettors can apply some lessons learned last season and apply them to how we prepare for the upcoming season.
One notable change that was expected and held true was that one loss did not doom a team’s prospects of qualifying for the Playoff.
In fact, two losses didn’t eliminate you, either.
Five of the seven teams that received at-large bids to the 12-team tournament last December lost twice on their way.
Given the new landscape of college football, with two super-power conferences and more than a dozen teams with legitimate National Championship aspirations, we shouldn’t expect that to change anytime soon.
It’s just too much to ask a team – even an elite one – in a Power 4 conference (especially the SEC and Big Ten) to run the table.
An actionable takeaway related to that note is that there may be no better time to bet a team than right after a surprising loss.
Last September, Northern Illinois stunned the entire sport with its upset of Notre Dame in South Bend. What was even more perplexing is that it came one week after the Fighting Irish beat Texas A&M on the road in a game that was supposed to announce Notre Dame as a contender.
Notre Dame would run the table through the rest of the regular season and make it all the way to the National Championship against Ohio State.
The Irish would lose to the Buckeyes, but they provided quite a sweat for anyone who had the foresight to buy the dip on Notre Dame after the loss to NIU.
And speaking of Ohio State, we saw their number drift after they got nicked by Michigan at the end of the regular season. Anybody who bought in on the Buckeyes after that upset got a terrific price on the champs.
We’ll also mention that Clemson opened the season with a loss to LSU and dropped two more games, but they made it into the field thanks to winning the ACC.
So while the rest of the college football universe is overreacting to a loss, bettors should think long and hard about zagging and buying low.
Looking ahead to this fall, Week 1 features a couple of games that could have massive implications. And while most people will work themselves into a lather hyping up the winner of LSU vs. Clemson and Notre Dame vs. Miami that weekend, savvy speculators will hop onto the emptying bandwagon of the team that lost.
Another note from Year 1 to keep in your pocket for when we get to the College Football Playoff is that the betting market seemed to overreact to the draw when the 12-team field got announced.
Ohio State’s defeat to Michigan caused the Buckeyes to drop to the No. 8 seed, meaning they had to run a gauntlet against Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas just to get to the title game.
Knowing the path they had to overcome, bettors began to write off Ohio State’s chances to win the National Championship, which presented another strong buying opportunity on a team that was one of the favorites to win the National Championship all year.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.