The worst fear shared by Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, J.K. Dobbins and Jonathan Taylor already happened to Maurice Jones-Drew.
The four most prominent running backs engaged in 2023 NFL offseason contract disputes resolved their business in four different ways:
One thing all four stars have in common, however, is the need to avoid a serious injury this season without long-term contract security — also known as what happened to Jones-Drew when he ended his 38-day holdout without receiving a new deal in 2012.
Jones-Drew’s strong five-game start was quickly derailed when he suffered a Lisfranc injury to his left foot, but he wasn’t put on injured reserve as the team held out hope of his late-season return. Ironically.
“My young son said toward the end of the holdout, ‘Dad, I thought you loved football,’” Jones-Drew, an NFL Network analyst, recently told The Post. “And I felt like, ‘I proved my point, so now I’ll come back and ball.’ I was leading the league in rushing when I broke my foot. It was going to be another 1,500-yard year.”
Jones-Drew doesn’t think his lack of summer practice time correlated to injury — a fear for the Raiders and Colts — because it wasn’t a soft-tissue injury.
“I wasn’t upset at it — those things happen,” Jones-Drew said. “But when I got hurt, it was all of a sudden like, ‘We need you to come back and play for us.’ No, when I tried to talk to you about it, you don’t want to talk. But I get hurt and it’s like, ‘We need you here.’”
Jones-Drew accounted for 44 percent of the Jaguars’ yards for scrimmage in 2011 during an era when running backs were valued higher than they have been ever since Todd Gurley’s record-setting 2018 extension backfired on the Rams. The running-back market completely bottomed out this season.
Barkley provided 27 percent of the Giants’ yards from scrimmage last season, but the impact of a healthy Barkley is better quantified by the year-over-year improvement of the team and quarterback Daniel Jones compared to when the running back missed 18 games in 2020-21.
“What did Daniel Jones look like in the years that Saquon wasn’t there?” Jones-Drew asked rhetorically. “He led the league in turnovers, he didn’t look very good — so much so that they didn’t pick up his fifth-year option.
“Now it’s not by chance and it’s not rocket science that when Saquon is here our quarterback had a much better year to know who the difference is. I know for a fact that if Saquon isn’t there that [Brian Daboll] doesn’t win Coach of the Year and that team doesn’t make the playoffs.”
Whereas the Taylor-Colts feud was escalated by a curious injury that was preventing Taylor from practicing, Barkley chose not to create a distraction when the Giants harbor realistic goals of a second straight playoff appearance after he suffered through four straight losing seasons to start his career.
“This is where the league has done a great job: We are so used to thinking that this is like youth football or high school football and ‘I don’t want to let my team down,’” Jones-Drew said. “This is more of a business. You have to be able to separate the business side from the love of the game. Everyone is going to make a different decision. I chose to be more business side than the love of the game. Saquon chose the love of the game. Kudos to him.”
Jones-Drew wants to see the Giants put the ball where their money is now, after paying a four-year, $160 million extension to Jones and leaving Barkley with a one-year, $10.1 million contract plus another $900,000 in hard-to-reach incentives.
“Don’t this year give Saquon 400 touches when you gave your quarterback $40 million,” said Jones-Drew, who also worked in scouting after his retirement. “Throw the ball 40 times and see how that does for you. I believe you don’t pay the position. You pay the player.
“I commend Saquon for going out, being a leader, but that team has to understand that’s who he is, too. He’s the leader in that community. He’s the leader of those men you expect to win games. To me, I need to be compensated for the things you are asking me to do, like step up and talk to the team when things don’t go right.”
By not paying running backs doing the heavy lifting, all four teams (and others in the future) are running another risk: fractured chemistry.
“Each locker room is different, but so many times these teams pay quarterbacks or guys that aren’t the top player and it creates friction in the locker room because we know that guy isn’t that good,” Jones-Drew said.
“I was in the locker room when that’s happened. We had guys that were supposed to get paid and instead we paid guys outside the locker room, or a guy comes in and doesn’t pan out. And all of a sudden, I’m upset because this dude is making X amount and I have to carry the ball 30 times a game for us to have a chance to win. What about the guy you just paid? That is where things get tricky.”
There might be no perfect solution to the devaluation of the running backs, but Jones-Drew says the position needs its own Kirk Cousins.
Cousins bet on himself to stay healthy and perform when he played on back-to-back franchise tags with Washington in order to reach free agency, where he secured the first-ever fully guaranteed contract from the Vikings.
It changed the market, and a risk-taker — maybe Taylor? maybe Barkley or Jacobs in 2025 after a second franchise tag? — is needed to get above Christian McCaffrey’s market-setting four-year, $64 million ($38 million guaranteed) contract.
“I am a firm believer in this: When your time is up to get a contract, you can’t settle,” Jones-Drew said. “The next guy needs to push and be above Christian McCaffrey, but you have to perform in a similar fashion. They have to push the envelope in order to make this work.
“Sit out or not, it doesn’t matter, but when you get on the field, you have to ball. Cousins did it in a fashion where he played well enough, and someone is going to have to be willing to take that risk.”
Barkley tried to argue in negotiations that he is a McCaffrey-like dual-threat, but the Giants countered with comparisons to other downhill runners. It was a major sticking point, even though new Giants linebacker Bobby Okereke later said Barkley is the better route-runner.
“Saquon is way more important to the Giants than CMC was to the 49ers last year,” Jones-Drew said. “My response to that would’ve been like, ‘That’s on your coaches, because that’s what I do well. Don’t blame me for coaches not putting me in places like the Niners put CMC.’”
Jones-Drew returned from his broken foot to average a career-low 3.4 yards per carry in the final year of his contract in 2013. After a small role with the Raiders in 2014, he retired.
“When I was playing, I had the No. 2 [highest] deal next to LaDainian Tomlinson, and it made sense,” he said. “Then came Stephen Jackson, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson. Guys were pushing the envelope. I hope Saquon plays through this year and then hits free agency, and I think he gets compensated at the highest point.”
Society is less patient than ever in most regards — especially the grooming of rookie quarterbacks.
For just the third time in the past 15 years (but the second in three years), three rookies are expected to start Week 1: The Panthers’ Bryce Young (drafted No. 1 overall), the Texans’ C.J. Stroud (No. 2) and the Colts’ Anthony Richardson (No. 4).
“None of them are ready,” ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky said. “It’s like becoming a parent. Are they ready? Absolutely not. But do you have any skills that allow you to survive a little bit? Because that’s what it is early on. And then, with those skills, can you thrive?”
The last time this youth movement happened was in 2021, when the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, Jets’ Zach Wilson and Patriots’ Mac Jones started Week 1 while fellow first-rounders Trey Lance (49ers) and Justin Fields (Bears) sat the bench. The other time was in 2012 with the Colts’ Andrew Luck, Washington’s Robert Griffin III and the Dolphins’ Ryan Tannehill — all top 10 picks.
Tannehill (36), Wilson (37), Jones (39), Luck (46) and Lawrence (51) were allowed to throw at least 35 times in their NFL debuts. Not surprisingly, all five of those teams lost. Griffin (26 pass attempts) started 1-0.
Young’s ability to “throw [receivers] open with anticipation and accuracy” gives him a chance for early success, Orlovsky said.
“Bryce is going to have to be really good at evading unblocked guys or free runners or guys that win their pass rush,” he added. “Making sure they don’t get free shots on him.”
Orlovsky called the Texans’ preseason opener a “blessing in disguise” for Stroud because he saw so much “different, quirky stuff” from the Patriots.
“You walk away going, ‘If we can protect him, he can throw it all over the yard,’” Orlovsky said, “and I think their offensive line is solid.”
And as for projected boom-or-bust raw talent Richardson, he has the tough draw of playing without Taylor, the Colts’ stud running back, for the first four games of the season. A strong running game is a rookie quarterback’s best friend, as the cliché goes.
“Anthony is such a rocket ship,” Orlovsky said. “He saw the field really cleanly and he threw it well. The biggest thing for Indy is there are going to be some tough moments because they are not super-talented. How mentally strong can he stay? Can he be totally focused on developing?”
Even the best football scouts can have a difficult time ignoring competition level.
A fast Ohio State receiver might look faster beating an Indiana cornerback. A strong LSU offensive lineman might look stronger blocking a Vanderbilt defensive lineman.
So, more powerhouse games aren’t just fun for fans. It can be helpful for scouts.
As the college football conference landscape shifts again, what is the benefit of USC-Ohio State games in the Big Ten, Oklahoma-Georgia games in the SEC and Utah-TCU games in the Big 12?
There will not be as much need to catch a non-conference (for now) game like Saturday’s must-see game in which Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers will be challenged by fellow top-10 draft prospects Kool-Aid McKinstry and Dallas Turner on Alabama’s defense.
“What it will help is seeing their best versus another team’s best,” Giants assistant general manager Brandon Brown said of the future superconference matchups. “So, you don’t have to worry about maybe a watered-down game.
“As we’re putting together our travel schedule, we know that we can go see two premier teams playing every single week — or we can have multiple looks at iron-sharpens-iron, best-versus-best. It allows us to easier see what’s playing at a high level on the big stage. But it won’t change our scouting processes at all.”
Here is how I see the two playoff brackets shaping up:
AFC: 1. Bengals; 2. Chiefs; 3. Jets; 4. Jaguars; 5. Bills; 6. Ravens; 7. Chargers
NFC: 1. Eagles; 2. 49ers 3. Lions; 4. Saints; 5. Cowboys; 6. Seahawks; 7. Packers
AFC Championship Game: Bengals over Jets
NFC Championship Game: Eagles over 49ers
Super Bowl: Bengals over Eagles