Juan Soto is worth every bit of the hype.
He is worth far more than the $33 million or so he will earn in his final season of arbitration.
He is probably worth however many hundreds of millions of dollars that will be headed his way when (presumably) he hits free agency.
But what is he worth for just 162 games (and perhaps one postseason)?
That is the question the Yankees and every other bidder must answer. Soto, a lefty with generational hitting skills and an ability to play a corner-outfield spot, is nearly perfect for the Yankees. His contractual situation is not.
The Post’s Jon Heyman argued as much Tuesday in a column that many in Yankees land took issue with. Give up whatever you can to get Juan Freakin’ Soto is essentially the fans’ counter-argument.
But while the Yankees and 29 other teams can hit the open market and buy right now, Juan Freakin’ Soto would represent a rental — and a costly one.
According to the website Baseball Trade Values, one year of Soto is approximately worth the next four years of Clarke Schmidt. Yes, really. This is not to say that Schmidt is the better player, but Soto’s value is weighed down by his 2024 price tag and his wide-open future. As spectacular as he is, Soto is worth — according to the site — significantly less than the next two years of Michael King, who also could be included in a multi-player swap.
You can bicker with the specifics of the valuations, but several years of good and cost-controlled can be more attractive than one year of great (in which a great sum is paid, too), especially in a sport as fickle as baseball. Knowing this, teams acquiring a superstar often do so in part to take advantage of the early negotiating windows into locking up that player.
The Mets had to surrender a pair of intriguing young infielders in Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario to land Francisco Lindor (and Carlos Carrasco), but Steve Cohen then threw $341 million at the superstar shortstop. The Dodgers did the same with Mookie Betts. The Cardinals did the same with Paul Goldschmidt. These teams were trading for a star and for an exclusive window to negotiate with that player — a strong side benefit that likely won’t be part of the added value in acquiring Soto. The Padres slugger, who previously turned down a $440 million contract extension from the Nationals, is represented by super-agent Scott Boras, who typically likes to bring his clients to the open market to maximize contracts.
So in all likelihood, teams would be bringing in Soto for just one guaranteed year and losing several pieces in doing so. Heyman has reported it could take two top-100 prospects (or comparable young players) to pry Soto from San Diego. Would you pull the trigger on, say, Schmidt, top pitching prospect Chase Hampton and Randy Vásquez, sending three solid-to-high-ceilinged arms to the pitching-needing Padres?
Baseball Trade Values’ model indicates such a haul would be a large overpay. The realities of the market indicate that such an overpay would be the only way to win the bidding.
Free agency is toothpick-thin in position players. Teams that are not getting Cody Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani are going to have a lot of trouble finding a difference-making bat who can plug a hole. Clubs will want Soto because he’s a future Hall of Famer with a lifetime .421 on-base percentage, excellent power and just 25 years old, but teams also will want Soto because there is nowhere else they can acquire numbers even in the same area code. Maybe the Yankees will have to add a third or fourth prospect — because if not, someone else will.
The other cost of Soto would be quieter: the actual cost. Will the $33 million or so he’s set to make in his final year of arbitration affect the rest of the Yankees’ offseason? Hal Steinbrenner has said he does not believe his team — which Spotrac calculated as finishing with around a $280 million payroll last year — should have to go beyond $300 million to win a championship.
Depending upon the rest of the Yankees’ moves, Soto’s salary could affect pursuits of Bellinger and/or Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto. A bit over $30 million for Soto certainly would be a bargain, but it also would have to be calculated when establishing his true value.
It is also possible Soto would be worth more to the Yankees than to plenty of their competitors (and not just because of the Stadium’s right-field porch). Does landing Soto — a hitter most often compared with Ted Williams; whose .946 OPS since breaking into MLB ranks as fourth-best in the span; who already has proven his postseason chops in winning a World Series with the Nationals — represent a splash that Brian Cashman needs to make? The Yankees GM clearly has heard the complaints of an organization he considers “pretty f–king good,” and immediately upgrading the 2024 Yankees could take off some of the heat.
But what if the 2024 Yankees fail — which, by their standards, means not winning the World Series (a likely scenario)? Would then losing Soto (and perhaps seeing the package of prospects sent to San Diego thrive) crank up the burner underneath Cashman’s seat?
Maybe Soto is precisely the hitter the Yankees need to take a swing at, and he pairs with Aaron Judge at the top of the lineup and brings another ring to The Bronx. Maybe he becomes a last-ditch effort at this regime pushing its chips all-in on bets that eventually go bust.
With such a blockbuster, the variance of outcomes is as great as Juan Soto.
Aaron Rodgers’ possible return is certainly incredible and possibly incredibly dumb.
One of the more remarkable sports comebacks in this generation may be taking place with the Jets, who welcomed their quarterback back Wednesday. Rodgers, less than three months after tearing his Achilles, took the field again for practice and opened up a three-week window in which he needs to be activated to the roster.
This is worth repeating: Rodgers, who suffered the devastating injury on Sept. 11 in Week 1, might retake the field before the regular season even has concluded.
The notion is remarkable, a tribute to both Rodgers’ dedication in his recovery and to modern healthcare. The previous poster child for a quick return from an Achilles tear was running back Cam Akers, then a Rams running back who played five and half months removed from the surgery.
Akers, who like Rodgers received the same type of “speed bridge” procedure that can expedite recovery, returned to play for a team that won a Super Bowl. Rodgers has less incentive.
The 4-7 Jets are ranked 15th of 16 AFC teams. Their playoff hopes are on life support, and the plug may be pulled before Rodgers can complete what would be a miraculous comeback.
Barring an unforeseen run behind Tim Boyle, Rodgers would be rushing back to a team that he cannot rescue.
Perhaps the Jets would give fans a peek of what their offense could look like next season. Or perhaps Rodgers would regret risking his health in a game that means virtually nothing.
Luis Severino wanted to be a Yankee for life. He signed as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic in 2012, rose to become a star and fell, bouncing from injury to injury.
At the end of his tenure, he knew the Yankees would let him walk in free agency.
“If I had to choose my career again,” Severino said in September, “I would always choose being a Yankee.”
His first year removed from The Bronx will not take him out of New York.
Severino agreed to a one-year, $13 million contract with the Mets on Wednesday evening, a solid bounce-back candidate for the team and a nearby landing spot for Severino, which likely figured into his decision.
The 29-year-old can be a test subject for the Mets’ new pitching infrastructure (and new lab in Port St. Lucie). Severino’s arm, still high-octane and still capable of hitting the upper 90s on the radar gun, did not quite decline during his miserable 2023, when he finished with a 6.65 ERA. But his results tanked and his sliders were crushed, which confounded the Yankees’ pitching minds.
If the Mets can transport Severino back to the ace he was in 2017 and ‘18, before injuries struck, they would have a top-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Kodai Senga even before any other moves are made. If not, Severino represents a fairly cheap, live arm for the middle or back of the rotation. If even that fails, Steve Cohen can eat the loss.
The move makes sense for both sides. Severino had to leave the Yankees, but he’s merely changing boroughs.
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