About 20 hours after Caleb Williams and Shedeur Sanders are done slinging footballs Saturday in what should be a Pac-12 shootout, the two quarterbacks will have an opportunity to see into a crystal ball.
Where could the two projected high-first-round draft picks be playing next season?
Two games Sunday in Week 4 of the NFL season could play a big role in deciding their fates.
Computers at NFL headquarters spit out hundreds of thousands of options for the 272-game regular-season schedule every year before the final version is approved. But how many of those had the last four winless teams meeting in two games on the day after Williams leads USC against Sanders and Colorado?
Sure, Dolphins-Bills and Ravens-Browns probably will make the biggest impacts among this week’s games on how this NFL season plays out, but as for the future landscape of the league? You can’t beat Broncos-Bears and Vikings-Panthers — or at least not as easily as other opponents are beating those four teams.
The No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is Williams’ spot to lose. Sanders — the son of Hall of Famer and Colorado head coach Deion Sanders — is one of the few challengers capable of stealing that spot (North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye remains the biggest threat) especially if he outduels Williams head-to-head. Or he could stay in school for another year and follow Williams’ path to the No. 1 pick in 2025.
Yes, Week 4 is a little early to begin thinking about the ripple effects of the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but only four of 158 teams to start 0-3 since 1990 have made the playoffs, so you can bet those four franchises are at least beginning to think, “Wait ’till next year!”
What happens if the No. 1 pick goes to the …
Bears: Say goodbye to Justin Fields. Probably to head coach Matt Eberflus, too. General manager Ryan Poles might be able to survive because he didn’t draft Fields.
But Poles made the controversial decision to keep Fields and trade the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft to the Panthers, instead of trading Fields when his value was high and starting over by drafting Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson. The package he got to move down from No. 1 to No. 9 included a 2024 first-rounder, two second-rounders and receiver D.J. Moore, who already is complaining about not being used right in the offense, as caught on video.
Fields entered the season as a dark-horse MVP candidate and is completing just 58 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and four interceptions. The Bears wouldn’t pass a second time on an opportunity to reset at quarterback, which would put Fields on the trade market.
Broncos: It’s difficult to say if this scenario would clean up a mess or make the mess messier.
The Broncos owe Russell Wilson another approximately $215 million (not all guaranteed) through 2028. The earliest it wouldn’t be crushing to their salary cap to move on would be in 2026.
But Wilson and head coach Sean Payton might soon be in a dog-eat-dog world. Who will new owner Rob Walton choose? The coach that he approved the trade of two draft picks to acquire? Or the quarterback the Broncos traded three players and four draft picks to get before Walton took over?
Wilson’s stunningly poor play last season has continued into this season, which raises the question of whether he is finished. It absolves former head coach Nathaniel Hackett of some blame. And maybe Payton is learning what Bill Belichick has learned post-Tom Brady — the guru is only as good as his quarterback. Williams and Sanders seem like good up-and-coming ones.
Vikings: After making the playoffs in Year 1 together, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell should consider using up some of their banked equity by tanking for a top pick. That means trading Kirk Cousins, who is on his contract year. Pair Williams (or Sanders or Maye) with young receiver Justin Jefferson, whose request for a record-breaking contract will be easier to fit when the quarterback is on a cost-controlled rookie contract.
The Vikings haven’t had the No. 1 overall pick since 1968. But they let go of a lot of pieces to last year’s NFC North-winning roster — Dalvin Cook, Dalvin Tomlinson, Za’Darius Smith, Adam Thielen, etc. — so the transition is already underway. The new quarterback would be the hand-picked choice of O’Connell, a former NFL quarterback who has coached the position for years.
Panthers: Cue all the references to how the Cardinals gave up on Josh Rosen — trading him to the Dolphins — after one season to draft Kyler Murray. Would the Panthers do the same to Young for their top-ranked quarterback in 2024?
Remember, there was talk head coach Frank Reich might be resistant to the 5-foot-10, (supposedly) 204-pound Young because of his slight stature. Well, Young already missed one of his first three career games due to injury. Is the 6-foot-1 Williams more to his liking? Is the 6-foot-2 Sanders? Or the 6-foot-4 Maye, who will have hometown pull as a North Carolina native?
The Panthers could recoup some of the assets they traded to the Bears by sticking with Young and trading this pick to a team as desperate for a future as they were last spring.
Of course, don’t count out the Cardinals, Raiders and Texans — all 1-2 — as No. 1 pick contenders, either.
There is a chance that come Sunday night, the Patriots’ Bill Belichick is done with his post-game responsibilities and can settle in to privately enjoy the afterglow of his 300th career regular-season victory at just about the same time that Chiefs-Jets kicks off.
The Chiefs’ Andy Reid will be in search of his 250th regular-season victory.
Only Don Shula (328) and George Halas (318) have more victories (excluding playoffs) than Belichick. Only those three and Tom Landry (250) have more than Reid. Who’s next on the list?
Let’s pause for a second.
The number 300 is regarded as a thing of the past in MLB when it comes to career wins for a pitcher. The last to reach that 24-member club was Randy Johnson in 2009.
The active career leader is 40-year-old Justin Verlander (256), who has indicated a desire to keep pitching, but is coming off a subpar year in his second season removed from Tommy John surgery. Zack Greinke (224) and Max Scherzer (214) look even more tapped out.
In football? The 300-win (and even 250-win) clubs might be more difficult to join despite coaches not necessarily aging out of careers.
The active wins leaders list after Reid includes the Steelers’ Mike Tomlin (165), the Seahawks’ Pete Carroll (163), the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy (157) and the Ravens’ John Harbaugh (149).
So, at their current career winning percentages and assuming the NFL keeps a 17-game regular season, here is when those four coaches would reach the 250- and 300-win milestones:
Tomlin (.636 winning percentage): 250 in his first game of the 2031 season, 300 in his 12th game of the 2035 season
Carroll (.590 winning percentage): 250 in his 15th game of the 2031 season, 300 in his 15th game of the 2036 season
McCarthy (.615 winning percentage): 250 in his second game of the 2032 season, 300 in his 15th game of the 2036 season
Harbaugh (.608 winning percentage): 250 in his 17th game of the 2032 season, 300 in his 14th game of the 2037 season
Tomlin, 51, has the best chance to be an all-time great because of his age and the winning percentage that comes with never having had a losing record in 17 seasons at the helm. McCarthy is 59 years old, Harbaugh is 61 and Carroll is 72.
Carroll is the NFL’s oldest active head coach, but it’s fun to imagine him pulling the strings for his 300th win at age 85.
If you are wondering about some of the wunderkinds, here’s how it would look for the Rams’ Sean McVay (61 wins) and 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan (55 wins), who are 37 years old and 43 years old, respectively:
McVay (.604 winning percentage): 250 in his 10th game of the 2041 season, 300 in his fourth game of the 2046 season
Shanahan (.545 winning percentage): 250 in his eighth game of the 2044 season, 300 in his 11th game of the 2049 season
In other words, appreciate watching Belichick and Reid — and their contrasting on-field strategies and public personalities — play chess while they last. Because there might not be two others like them for a long time.
No. 13 LSU at No. 20 Ole Miss, 6 p.m. Saturday, ESPN
One of the fastest-rising players in NFL Draft circles is LSU receiver Malik Nabers, whose stock is climbing from late first-rounder to potential top-10 pick.
He is squarely in the conversation with Florida State’s Keon Coleman and others as the runner-up prize for teams that miss out on Marvin Harrison Jr. of Ohio State.
The 6-foot-1 Nabers (32 catches for 523 yards and five touchdowns) has the speed to take the top off of a defense and the physicality to win 50/50 balls.
LSU also has two defensive linemen garnering first-round consideration: Maason Smith (five tackles) and Mekhi Wingo (14 tackles, 1.5 sacks).
Ole Miss receiver Tre Harris has turned eight catches into five touchdowns, but was not in the box score last week — playing at “70 percent,” according to head coach Lane Kiffin — against Alabama. The Louisiana Tech transfer gets another chance to show he belongs against top SEC talent.
Another potential prospect who will be on the sidelines, Ole Miss tight end Caden Prieskorn, has played just one game this season due to injury.
Move over, D’Andre Swift. The NFL’s second-leading rusher has to make room for a new most popular Swift in the NFL.
Music icon Taylor Swift’s budding romance with Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce of the Chiefs is the talk of the league — yes, even players are gossiping about it in locker rooms — so I decided to have some fun and match seven of Swift’s song titles to NFL storylines.
Cruel Summer: The anthem for the Giants’ Saquon Barkley, the Ravens’ J.K. Dobbins, the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs and the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler.
All four struck out in their pursuits to secure new multi-year contracts before training camp because the running-back market tanked.
Now? Only Jacobs is playing because Dobbins (torn Achilles) is out for the year, Barkley and Ekeler are sidelined by less severe injuries. The wear and tear accumulated by running backs is both why the players covet long-term security and why teams are reluctant to provide it.
We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together: Speaking of running backs … The Colts’ Jonathan Taylor is eligible to come off the Physically Unable to Perform list next week. Will he be traded before then?
Taylor’s ankle injury overlapped with his hold-in for a new contract. As soon as he went on PUP, reports came out that he could pass a physical if traded, which raises a question of if he was ever injured or if the Colts were retaliating for Taylor being “too hurt” to practice.
The Colts surprisingly started 2-1 without Taylor.
Anti-Hero: Patriots quarterback Mac Jones certainly is becoming public enemy No. 1 after his latest in a series of alleged cheap shots.
The Jets reportedly sent video to the league on cornerback Sauce Gardner’s behalf, showing Jones hit him in the “private parts” last Sunday.
NFL players past and present such as Chris Long, Darius Slay, Patrick Queen, Lawrence Tynes (who co-hosts a podcast for The Post) and Devin McCourty (Jones’ former teammate) all weighed in on what is a string of incidents over three years that could lead to a fine or suspension — or to a teammate getting hurt as revenge for Jones’ actions.
Welcome to New York: Injured Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is upset that the team’s fans and former players — including Joe Namath, the most revered of them all — are blasting his two friends, quarterback Zach Wilson and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.
Rodgers is urging “everybody stick together,” which sounds like a very Green Bay way of thinking. He wanted the big city. Criticism is as much a part of it as Broadway shows.
You Belong With Me: Head coach Mike McDaniel can serenade quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — who is back to playing at his pre-concussions MVP form — and receiver Tyreek Hill — who has been worth every asset the Dolphins traded to the Chiefs in 2022 — on the heels of a 70-point outburst against the Broncos.
The unlikeliest of the NFL’s three remaining unbeaten teams faces a big test in Buffalo this weekend.
Shake It Off: One week ago, the Cowboys were cast as Super Bowl contenders. Then came the combination of All-Pro cornerback Trevon Diggs suffering a season-ending torn ACL with a loss to the lowly Cardinals. Now Ezekiel Elliott returns to town with the Patriots, singing his own Swift tune: “Cowboy Like Me.”
I Forgot That You Existed: Three of the four teams in the NFC South own winning records, one year after the Buccaneers’ 8-9 record was good enough to win the division. Former No. 1 overall draft pick Baker Mayfield has just a big enough ego to be able to step into Tom Brady’s impossible-to-fill shoes without experiencing self-doubt in Tampa Bay.